Friday, March 27, 2015

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Like two of Friday’s players, I’ve “come to play.”

What a match – Michael and Eric came out with guns a-blazing.

We enter FJ! with a total of $55,600, just $1,000 shy of the sum amassed by Arthur Chu, Julia Collins, and Ben Ingram in the first day of the last TOC Finals.

Jacqueline Hawkins	Michael Bilow	Eric Swanson
6,200	28,600	20,800

Speaking of guns, the reason this is so late is my good friend Jacqueline (coincidence) organized a “murder mystery weekend” at an inn in the Catskills. It was perfect: the joint even had a billiards room.

My character, Keith Brunette, ran a floating craps game. Mr. Body and I had a good relationship – he’d bring his friends to the game I’d set up in his LIBRARY, and he’d take them to the brothel afterwards to celebrate their wins or drown their losses.

We had a good arrangement until he lost $10,000 one drunken evening (that’s a lot of money, particularly in 1933, when this game was set) and I sent a few business associates with a LEAD PIPE to convince him to start paying.

Mr. Green was the guilty party. REVOLVER, BALLROOM.

Anyway, our Final Jeopardy! category is:

TRANSPORTATION

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Eric doubles his score, he’ll have 41,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Michael will need to wager 13,000.

Jacqueline, with less than the difference of their two scores, is out of contention.

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
		13,000		20,800
		41,600		41,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Michael with 15,600.

To stay above his total, Eric can wager up to 5,200.

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
		13,000		5,200
		15,600		15,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000			5,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Jacqueline at 12,400.

Michael could wager at most 16,200.

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
6,200		16,200		8,400
12,400		12,400		12,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000	16,200		5,200

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000	16,200		5,200

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Eric makes the rational maximum wager of 5,200, Michael will need to wager 2,600 to stay above him.

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
		2,600		5,200
		26,000		26,000
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000	16,200		5,200
			2,600

In that case, Eric would have to wager 10,400 and respond correctly. That’s worthy of an all-in wager, however.

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
		2,600		10,400
		31,200		31,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000	16,200		5,200
			2,600	10,400*

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
		13,000	16,200		5,200
			2,600	10,400*

Zero wagers

Nothing doing here.

What actually happened

Jacqueline		Michael		Eric
6,200		28,600		20,800
6,200		16,199		14,599
0		12,401		6,201
		min	max	min	max
		13,001	16,199	20,800
			2,599		5,199

There’s nothing wrong with Eric’s wager, per se, assuming he meant to go “big” – he’s covering Michael’s low range. I just hate to see money left on the table.

The last time two players entered Final Jeopardy! with more than $20,000 was Mark Japinga‘s second game, the infamous “Zelda” Final Jeopardy!, on July 12, 2013.

Mark		Toby		Ken
20,800		26,400		6,600
7,500		15,400		6,000
28,300		11,000		600
min	max	min	max
5,601	7,599	15,201	19,799	6,600
20,800		4,001	5,599

At game’s end, our three players combined for a total score of $18,602. Had all three responded correctly, the total would have been $92,598.

For those of you who do crosswords, this Final clue was a slam dunk.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

TRANSPORTATION

INCORPORATED IN 1948, THIS COMPANY CHOSE ITS NAME FROM THE BOOK OF THE HEBREW PROPHET HOSEA

[spoiler]What is El Al? (Israel’s national airline)[/spoiler]

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