March 18, 2015

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

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Kristin Sausville didn’t need a savvy wager to win her fifth game last night, but it certainly didn’t hurt. Will she win a sixth?

Except for the high number of misses in the second round, this was a great game to watch.

It featured three different playing styles: a champ who was settling into her role, a guy who was clearly having fun on stage, and a steely woman who nabbed the lead on two late big-value clues. (I loved Alex’s surprise when he realized she was winning when the horn sounded.)

Kristin

Sausville

Daniel

Watkins

Andrea

Keleher

9,200

6,400

9,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

COMPOSERS

This looks complicated, but because Andrea and Kristin are so close, that will cut down on much of the mind games.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Kristin doubles her score, she’ll have 18,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Andrea will need to wager 9,000.

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
9,200				9,000
18,400				18,400

min	max	min	max	min	max
				9,000

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Andrea with 400.

To stay above her total, Kristin can wager up to 8,800.

Daniel can wager up to 6,000.

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
8,800		6,000		9,000
400		400		400

min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,800		6,000	9,000

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Daniel at 12,800.

To cover this, Kristin should wager at least 3,600.

(Andrea would need to wager at least 3,400, but this is questionable.)

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
3,600		6,400		3,400
12,800		12,800		12,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		6,000	9,000

If Kristin is incorrect with that wager, Daniel can wager up to 800 to stay above her total.

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
3,600		800
5,600		5,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		800	9,000
			6,000

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		800	9,000
			6,000

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

Kristin and Andrea are so tight – and Daniel is looming in the background to swoop in on a double miss – that Andrea shouldn’t play mind games.

Third’s max vs. second

Against Kristin, Daniel can wager at most 800. With a correct response, he’ll have 7,200.

To stay above this, Kristin can wager at most 2,000.

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
2,000		800
7,200		7,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		800	9,000
	2,000		6,000

If she is correct, Kristin will have 11,200.

To account for this, Daniel will need to wager at least 4,800.

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
2,000		4,800
11,200		11,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		800	9,000
	2,000	4,800	6,000

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		800	9,000
	2,000	4,800	6,000

Zero wagers

I’m not overly concerned about this, but if Daniel wants to cover an “unsafe” wager out of Kristin (2,799), he should do so.

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
3,600	8,800		800	9,000
	2,000	5,600	6,000

What actually happened

Kristin		Daniel		Andrea
9,200		6,400		9,400
3,601		6,400		9,205
5,599		12,800		18,605

min	max	min	max	min	max
3,601	8,799		799	9,001
	1,999	5,601	5,999

Julia remains the last player to win a sixth game, and our Streak of Megachamp Futility now stands at 141 games.

Great run by Kristin – we’ll see her in the TOC!

Tournament of Champions standings

Rank	Last game	Name	Wins	Winnings
1	15 Jan 2015	John Schultz	5	$104,500
2	02 Jan 2015	Vaughn Winchell	5	$103,103
3	18 Mar 2015	Kristin Sausville	5	$94,201
4	08 Jan 2015	Elliot Yates	4	$65,000
5	22 Oct 2014	Alexander Persaud	3	$61,000
6	03 Nov 2014	Ryan Alley	3	$56,800
7	15 Oct 2014	Shane Curtis	3	$42,001
8	25 Feb 2015	Dava-Leigh Brush	3	$31,501
TT	13 Feb 2015	Jennifer Giles	–	$100,000

The Final Jeopardy! clue