Thursday, March 19, 2015

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Last night, Andrea Keleher stormed back to take the lead on the penultimate clue, allowing her to secure a victory over 5xer Kristin Sausville. Will she begin a streak of her own?

[Video should be available by midnight Eastern]

With a Final category like this, this librarian has probably as good a shot as any, even though she’s in second place.

Andrea Keleher	Gina Shaddox	Brandon Bidlack
11,400	11,200	13,000

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

LITERARY ANAGRAMS

Andrea really should be in third, but Gina botched the Penultimate Wager, putting up $2,000 when she had a $200 advantage over Brandon.

When you have a situation like that, you know you have to get just one clue right to win the game. The question in front of you is: will it be this one, or the next one?

If you like your chances on this clue, go for at least $12,801. If you don’t, no more than $199 to preserve the lead.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Andrea doubles her score, she’ll have 22,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Brandon will need to wager 9,800.

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
11,400				9,800
22,800				22,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
				9,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Brandon with 3,200.

To stay above his total, Andrea can wager up to 8,200.

Gina can wager up to 8,000.

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
8,200		8,000		9,800
3,200		3,200		3,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,200		8,000	9,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Gina at 22,400.

To cover this, Andrea should wager at least 11,000. In this case, though, she will lose on an incorrect response, so she might as well wager everything.

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
11,000		11,200		9,400
22,400		22,400		22,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,200		8,000	9,800
11,000*

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,200		8,000	9,800
11,000*

Second-order calculations

Third’s max vs. first

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
7,800		8,000
19,200		19,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800	8,200		8,000	9,800
11,000*

If she’s wrong with that wager, she’ll be left with 3,600. So Gina should really cap hers at 7,600.

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
7,800		7,600
3,600		3,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800	8,200		7,600	9,800
11,000*			8,000

Zero wagers

Andrea can stay above Gina by wagering less than 200.

Brandon, even more questionably, can guarantee a win on the triple-stumper with a wager of less than 1,600.

Gina should wager at least 3,600 to cover both possibilities.

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800	8,200	3,600	7,600	9,800
11,000*			8,000
	200				1,600

What actually happened

Andrea		Gina		Brandon
11,400		11,200		13,000
10,000		200		9,801
1,400		11,000		3,199
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,400		3,601	7,599	9,801
7,801	8,199
	199				1,599

Gina’s bad Penultimate Wager actually saved her bacon here. Sometimes the outcome is better than the process…

Last night’s wager from Andrea should have tipped me off that maybe she wasn’t prepared. $10k is a stab in the dark.

I’ve included a few thoughts on how to arrive at the correct response to this puzzle.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

LITERARY ANAGRAMS

VIVIAN DARKBLOOM, A MINOR CHARACTER IN A 1955 NOVEL BY THIS FOREIGN BORN AUTHOR, IS AN ANAGRAM OF HIS NAME

[spoiler]Who is Vladimir Nabokov?

My approach: Two V’s in the first name – what foreign language uses a lot of V’s?[/spoiler]

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