Thursday, April 2, 2015
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We’re back to normal here at The Final Wager.
…or are we?
Be sure to check out “the other wagering website,” Just Wager $4,000.
Man, had I gotten that Daily Double under “bordering two countries” or whatever, I couldn’t have said “bet it all” quickly enough.
|
Kerry Greene |
Sharon Boyd |
Niels Hirschmann |
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 9,400 |
This one’s really straightforward. Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| NATIONAL HISTORIC LANDMARKS |
Ha, sike! “Sent with a kiss” is a thing?
|
Kerry Greene |
Sharon Boyd |
Niels Hirschmann |
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 |
This makes things MUCH more interesting. Why, you ask? Just stick an equals sign and a plus sign into those numbers.
First-order calculations
Second doubles up
If Niels doubles his score, he’ll have 23,600.
To cover this all-in wager, Kerry will need to wager 7,000.
| Kerry |
Sharon |
Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| 7,000 | 11,800 | ||||
| 23,600 | 23,600 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 7,000 | |||||
An incorrect response with that wager will leave Kerry with 9,600.
To stay above her total, Niels can wager up to 2,200.
Now, here’s where things get fun – Sharon will have this total if she doubles up.
| Kerry |
Sharon |
Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| 7,000 | 4,800 | 2,200 | |||
| 9,600 | 9,600 | 9,600 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 7,000 | 4,800* | 2,200 | |||
WAGER-TO-TIE ALERT!
| Kerry |
Sharon |
Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 7,000 | 4,800* | 2,200 | |||
We do have one other possibility to consider.
Second-order calculations
Quasi-Shoretegic wagers
If Niels chooses to stay above a double-up by Sharon, he will have at most 14,000.
Kerry can stay above that total by wagering no more than 2,600.
| Kerry |
Sharon |
Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| 2,600 | 2,200 | ||||
| 14,000 | 14,000 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 7,000 | 4,800* | 2,200 | |||
| 2,600 | |||||
In that case, Niels must wager 7,400 – but at that point, might as well go all-in.
| Kerry |
Sharon |
Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| 2,600 | 7,400 | ||||
| 19,200 | 19,200 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 7,000 | 4,800* | 2,200 | |||
| 2,600 | 7,400* | ||||
So, here are your wagering ranges:
| Kerry | Sharon | Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 7,001 | 4,800 ! | 11,800 ! | |||
| 7,000 ! | |||||
| 2,599 | 2,199 | ||||
What should each player do?
Here’s the video from the post I put together about wager-to-tie scenarios:
Sharon: everything. Not a dollar less!
Niels: People love debating the proper wager for Niels in a situation like this. I almost always advocate for the bigger play – but the tie possibility should swing even the most passive player into that camp, unless he’s completely averse to the category.
Kerry: Which is more likely – you and Niels will both get it right, or Sharon will be the only one to respond correctly? Add the dollar, unless you really, really don’t like the category.
What actually happened
| Kerry | Sharon | Niels | |||
| 16,600 | 4,800 | 11,800 | |||
| 7,001 | 4,799 | 11,800 | |||
| 23,601 | 9,599 | 23,600 | |||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 7,001 | 4,800 ! | 11,800 ! | |||
| 7,000 ! | |||||
| 2,599 | 2,199 | ||||
Had Sharon been the only one to respond correctly, she would have entered a tiebreaker with Kerry. Why risk that? Even more importantly – why risk losing by a dollar if Kerry offers the tie?
Once again, a 7,001 wager deprives us of the opportunity for our first tiebreaker.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| NATIONAL HISTORIC LANDMARKS |
| 50 YEARS AFTER SAN FRANCISCO’S CABLE CARS BECAME A NATIONAL HISTORIC LANDMARK, THIS CITY’S STREET RAILWAY GOT THE DESIGNATION IN 2014 |
[spoiler]What is New Orleans?[/spoiler]
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