Monday, March 23, 2015

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After the long reign of Kristin Sausville*, we might be looking at another string of short-lived champs – much like the early Popes of Rome. (Time for a segue!)

As you might have seen, I’ve begun a competition called Papal Pandemonium. Over the next two weeks, your votes will determine the best name ever used by a Pope.

The ballot for the third quarterfinal is open until midnight Eastern time; we’ll have a new round every day.

*Thanks to Kristin for choosing this week’s color scheme, something I offer all 5-time champions!

Another tough game, with a lot of cash lost on Daily Doubles. Alex nailed a $2,000 clue at the end of Daily Jeopardy! to make this a spicy meat-a-ball.

Alex Navissi	Nate Burgan	Jill Locascio
9,600	4,400	13,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

U.S. CITIES

This is a basic two-thirds situation with the added kink of a player still alive in third place.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Alex doubles his score, he’ll have 19,200.

To cover this all-in wager, Jill will need to wager 5,800.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
9,600				5,800
19,200				19,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
				5,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Jill with 7,600.

To stay above her total, Alex can wager up to 2,000.

Nate must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
2,000		3,200		5,800
7,600		7,600		7,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
	2,000	3,200*		5,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Nate at 8,800.

To stay above him, Alex can wager at most 800.

Jill could wager at most 4,600. We’ll ignore this and focus on her mind-game situation with Alex.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
800		4,400		4,600
8,800		8,800		8,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
	800	3,200*		5,800
	2,000

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	800	3,200*		5,800
	2,000

Second-order calculations

Quasi-Shoretegic wagers

If Alex chooses to stay above a double-up by Nate, he will have at most 10,400.

Jill can stay above that total by wagering no more than 3,000.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
800				3,000
10,400				10,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
	800	3,200*		5,800
	2,000				3,000

To get above Jill’s total, Alex must wager 6,800. In that case, he might as well wager everything.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
6,800				3,000
16,400				10,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
	800	3,200*		5,800
	2,000				3,000
6,800*

Second’s max vs. first

Were I Jill and thinking about a smaller wager, I’d restrict it to stay above Alex’s maximum wager of 2,000. Alex still needs to go all-in.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
2,000				1,800
11,600				11,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
	800	3,200*		5,800
	2,000				1,800
6,800*					3,000

Zero wagers

Nothing doing; that’s all she wrote.

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	800	3,200*		5,800
	2,000				1,800
6,800*

What actually happened

Alex		Nate		Jill
9,600		4,400		13,400
3,801		4,200		5,801
13,401		8,600		7,599
min	max			min	max
9,600		4,400		5,801
	799				1,799

Alex comes from behind for a second straight day, but leaves $5,799 on the table – and puts himself at risk to losing against a smaller wager from Jill.

(Note that he would have finished in third no matter what Jill wagered had he missed.)

I’m curious to see what Alex might do in the lead – perhaps we’ll find out tomorrow!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

U.S. CITIES

KIPLING WROTE OF THIS CITY, “IF A CAR” CAN “RUN UP & DOWN A SLIT IN THE GROUND…WHY SHALL I SEEK THE REASONS OF THE MIRACLE?”

[spoiler]What is San Francisco?[/spoiler]

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