Thursday, April 23, 2015
First, we had Kerry Greene; then a one-timer. Then came Alex Jacob, and another one-timer.
And now, Michael Brady’s on his third game. You get what I’m sayin’ here?
Not really, and here’s why: he’s far too passive on the Daily Doubles. That Calendar DD should have been a “bet it all” – down $7,000 on a mid-level clue.
Unfortunately, Ellen didn’t have too much luck tonight.
|
Michael Brady |
Ellen Burgett |
Greg Seroka |
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| ART IN THE CITY |
Nice and straightforward with two players.
First-order calculations
If Michael doubles his score, he’ll have 25,400.
To cover this all-in wager, Greg will need to wager 8,000.
| Michael |
Ellen |
Greg | |||
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 | |||
| 12,700 | 8,000 | ||||
| 25,400 | 25,400 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 8,000 | |||||
An incorrect response with that wager will leave Greg with 9,400.
To stay above his total, Michael can wager up to 3,300.
| Michael |
Ellen |
Greg | |||
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 | |||
| 3,300 | 8,000 | ||||
| 9,400 | 9,400 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 3,300 | 8,000 | ||||
Second-order calculations
If Michael makes the rational maximum wager of 3,300, Greg will need to wager 1,400 to stay above him.
| Michael |
Ellen |
Greg | |||
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 | |||
| 3,300 | 1,400 | ||||
| 16,000 | 16,000 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 3,300 | 8,000 | ||||
| 1,400 | |||||
In that case, Michael would have to wager 6,100 and respond correctly. Might as well go all-in there.
| Michael |
Ellen |
Greg | |||
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 | |||
| 6,100 | 1,400 | ||||
| 18,800 | 18,800 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 3,300 | 8,000 | ||||
| 6,100* | 1,400 | ||||
Zero wagers
Just in case Michael goes for the nonsensical 4,701 wager (to cover Greg’s zero), Greg should cap his risk at 9,400.
| Michael |
Ellen |
Greg | |||
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 3,300 | 8,000 | 9,400 | |||
| 6,100* | 1,400 | ||||
Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.
What actually happened
| Michael | Ellen | Greg | |||
| 12,700 | -2,600 | 17,400 | |||
| 1,000 | 8,001 | ||||
| 13,700 | 25,401 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 3,299 | 8,001 | 9,399 | |||
| 12,700 | 1,399 | ||||
Go big, or go home, right?
In the past, I’ve listed the “big” wager as my preferred wager for the trailer. I’ve run the stats on that, and… well, stay tuned.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| ART IN THE CITY |
| GERMAN CITY WHERE YOU’LL FIND THE STATUE SEEN HERE |
(Thanks to JBoard user jeff6286 for uploading this)
[spoiler]What is Hamelin? (That’s the Pied Piper)[/spoiler]
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