Tuesday, April 21, 2015
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Yesterday seemed like a disaster; a great 6-time champ lost and we saw the dreaded black wager. Surely we can do better tonight, right?
In case you missed it, I put together a comparison of Alex’s strategies against those of Arthur Chu.
Doesn’t look like it! Things got off to a poor start when Michael withheld $200 from his attempt at locking Rachel out on the last Daily Double.
He’s still got the lead, and an extra dollar, which might give me a headache.
|
Todd Lovell |
Michael Brady |
Rachel Pepe |
| 5,800 | 12,201 | 7,800 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| BODIES OF WATER |
Because of Michael’s annoying dollar, I’m going to take a slightly different approach to these calculations tonight.
First-order calculations
Second doubles up
If Rachel doubles her score, she’ll have 15,600.
To cover this all-in wager, Michael will need to wager 3,400. NOTE: this already includes the extra dollar, so I’ll mark that with a plus sign.
| Todd |
Michael |
Rachel | |||
| 5,800 | 12,201 | 7,800 | |||
| 3,400 | 7,800 | ||||
| 15,601 | 15,600 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 3,400+ | |||||
An incorrect response with that wager will leave Michael with 8,801.
To get above his total, Rachel must wager at least 1,002, and Todd, 3,002. That’s all-in for both.
| Todd |
Michael |
Rachel | |||
| 5,800 | 12,201 | 7,800 | |||
| 3,002 | 3,400 | 1,002 | |||
| 8,802 | 8,801 | 8,802 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 3,002* | 3,400+ | 1,002* | |||
Michael has some latitude here; I’d cap my downside at 4,400, already taking that dollar into account, so as not to fall below Rachel’s pre-Final total.
| Todd |
Michael |
Rachel | |||
| 5,800 | 12,201 | 7,800 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 3,002* | 3,400+ | 4,400+ | 1,002* | ||
What actually happened
| Todd | Michael | Rachel | |||
| 5,800 | 12,201 | 7,800 | |||
| 3,000 | 3,400 | 7,800 | |||
| 8,800 | 15,601 | 0 | |||
| min | max | ||||
| 5,800 | 3,400 | 4,400 | 7,800 | ||
Man oh man – another day, another black mark. Notice that if Michael misses, he’ll have $8,801 – flipping Todd’s back-door maneuver on its head!
I think we had black wagers on consecutive days last season, too, even though on the whole they’re exceedingly rare.
Funny story: I gave a group presentation this evening on behalf of Prospect Park Track Club (hence the shirt). I found that instead of picturing everyone in their underwear, I now pretend I’m talking to a camera in my bedroom.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| BODIES OF WATER |
| THE FINNISH CALL IT ITAMERI & THE GERMANS CALL IT OSTSEE |
[spoiler]What is the Baltic Sea?[/spoiler]
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