Monday, April 20, 2015
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For an overall analysis of Alex’s strategies, check out this post.
Alex Jacob became the first player since Julia Collins to sweep an entire week. Will he win a seventh tonight?
What a thrilling game this was, with both Alex and Todd making big True Daily Double wagers in the second round.
|
Alex Jacob |
Monica Lott |
Todd Lovell |
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 |
Speaking of Julia, we’re just a few thousand short of the total amassed by her, Ben Ingram, and Arthur Chu in the first game of the last Tournament of Champions.
All three contestants are alive with this category:
| BUSINESS |
Here we go.
First-order calculations
Second doubles up
If Todd doubles his score, he’ll have 36,800.
To cover this all-in wager, Alex will need to wager 10,400.
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 10,400 | 18,400 | ||||
| 36,800 | 36,800 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | |||||
An incorrect response with that wager will leave Alex with 16,000.
To stay above his total, Todd can wager up to 2,400.
Monica must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 10,400 | 6,400 | 2,400 | |||
| 16,000 | 16,000 | 16,000 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 6,400* | 2,400 | |||
Third doubles up
A successful doubling will put Monica at 19,200.
To cover this, Todd should wager at least 800.
Alex could wager at most 7,200.
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 7,200 | 9,600 | 800 | |||
| 19,200 | 19,200 | 19,200 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 6,400* | 800 | 2,400 | ||
| 7,200 | |||||
Just in case Todd goes for the 800 wager, Monica needs to go for at least 8,000 – still, all-in.
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 8,000 | 800 | ||||
| 17,600 | 17,600 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 8,000* | 800 | 2,400 | ||
| 7,200 | |||||
Here’s where things stand after the first order:
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 8,000* | 800 | 2,400 | ||
| 7,200 | |||||
Second-order calculations
Second’s max vs. first
If Todd makes the rational maximum wager of 2,400, Alex will need to wager 5,600 to stay above him.
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 5,600 | 2,400 | ||||
| 20,800 | 20,800 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 8,000* | 800 | 2,400 | ||
| 5,600 | |||||
In that case, Todd would have to wager 13,600 and respond correctly. That’s another all-in wager if he’s scared that Alex isn’t playing to win.
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 5,600 | 13,600 | ||||
| 32,000 | 32,000 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 8,000* | 800 | 2,400 | ||
| 5,600 | 13,600* | ||||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Alex and Todd: 8,000
Alex and Monica: 16,800
Todd and Monica: 8,800
| Alex |
Monica |
Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 16,000 | 8,000* | 800 | 2,400 | |
| 5,600 | 16,000* | ||||
Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.
What actually happened
| Alex | Monica | Todd | |||
| 26,400 | 9,600 | 18,400 | |||
| 10,401 | 5,000 | 8,001 | |||
| 15,999 | 4,600 | 26,401 | |||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 10,401 | 15,999 | 9,600 | 801 | 2,399 | |
| 5,599 | 18,400 | ||||
Monica’s wager makes no sense – she doesn’t even give herself a chance to win! The ol’ black wager for her.
Todd gets a red because he’s not covering the small range out of Alex – plus, he left a whopping $10,399 on the table. Shame. I hear Sony Pictures Studios could use the money after its recent email issue.
More analysis of Alex’s play coming up tomorrow.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| BUSINESS |
| THIS SOCIAL MEDIA COMPANY LAUNCHED IN OCTOBER 2010; IN 2012, WITH ABOUT A DOZEN EMPLOYEES & NO REVENUE, IT SOLD FOR $1 BILLION |
[spoiler]What is Instagram?[/spoiler]
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