Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Friday, May 6, 2016 (Teachers QF #5)
[php snippet=63]
Tonight’s players need only 1,301 to qualify for the semifinals. Of course, none of them knows that.
Bill is in good shape, unless he does something dumb; Kaberi and Cory are in precarious positions, historically speaking.
|
Kaberi Chakrabarty |
Cory Harris |
Bill Knuth |
| 8,600 | 8,400 | 13,600 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| AUTHORS |
Suggested wagers
Based on past non-winning scores in Teachers Tournament quarterfinals.
| Kaberi | Cory | Bill | |
| 8,600 | 8,400 | 13,600 | |
| 20% confidence | 0 | 0 | 300 |
| 30% confidence | 5,300 | 0 | 300 |
| 40% confidence | 8,000 | 8,200 | 300 |
| 50% confidence | 8,000 | 8,200 | 300 |
| 60% confidence | 8,000 | 8,200 | 3,601 |
| 70% confidence | 8,000 | 8,200 | 3,601 |
| 80% confidence | 8,000 | 8,200 | 3,601 |
Wild cards are unpredictable things.
What actually happened
| Kaberi | Cory | Bill | |||
| 8,600 | 8,400 | 13,600 | |||
| 3,000 | 8,398 | 3,601 | |||
| 11,600 | 16,798 | 9,999 | |||
Cory goes for the gusto and comes out with the win… while Kaberi and Bill both had about 45 seconds of sheer terror, waiting to see if they’d punch a ticket to Washington, D.C.
Poor Terrie Trebilcock has to make the trip as the alternate – a special form of hell in any event, but especially so when you have to travel.
Quarterfinal winners:
- Chris Tempro
- Jason Sterlacci
- Jill Gilbert
- Peter Buchholz
- Cory Harris
Wild-card race:
- Kaberi Chakrabarty – 11,600
- Lauren Gilmore – 11,000
- Bill Knuth – 9,999
- Nicole Throckmorton – 5,000
- Terrie Trebilcock – 1,300
- Tenaya Snider – 600
- Dianne Lee – 100
- Hannah Krug – 1
- Greg Greenzweig – 0
- Ian Miller – 0
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| AUTHORS |
| SHE WROTE IN HER JOURNAL IN 1867 THAT A PUBLISHER “ASKED ME TO WRITE A GIRLS BOOK. SAID I’D TRY.” |
[spoiler]Who was Louisa May Alcott?[/spoiler]
[php snippet=63]
It feels like this would have been a good round for everyone to just wager 4000.
Responding later than I would like, but thanks for the analysis, Keith! Like I said on Facebook, I looked at your college charts for wildcards, and knowing that the recent tournament had a logjam in the mid 1400s, I was aiming for 15000 as my WC number. I basically distilled the college tournament charts to the idea that, if you’re in 3rd place, bet nearly everything. I left $2, saving myself in case there were a bunch of zeroes and $1 left (which actually would have put me in 9/12 place). I l didn’t leave the 100/200 suggested because I thought that would have been more useful winning than in losing; even though I was so close to Kaberi, I figured she wasn’t going to bet it all, but I thought Bill would cover for the win. My hope was that if Kaberi and I both got it right, I’d at least beat her for a WC.
Adding to that is that I’m an English teacher, and I couldn’t live with myself losing out on a WC because I didn’t bet on myself on that category. “The Solar System” is a category I’m not confident about, and of all the games in the week, that’s the category I would have been most conservative on; I might have $1600 (to get above Bill if he missed it) if that was the category. But who knows.
Look forward to seeing what you have to say tonight!
With your analysis of the wild-card cut-offs, could you check how often the Friday show produces two WC winners? It seems to happen nearly every tournament.