Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, May 5, 2016 (Teachers QF #4)
[php snippet=63]
I had some issues with technology on Thursday, so I’m sad to say there’s no video. But there are some statistics!
For the second day in a row, a lock from the champ’s position:
|
Peter Buchholz |
Tenaya Snider |
Terrie Trebilcock |
| 17,000 | 5,600 | 7,800 |
But remember we still have those four wild card positions available.
| 19th CENTURY AMERICANS |
Suggested wagers
Based on past non-winning scores in Teachers Tournament quarterfinals.
| Peter | Tenaya | Terrie | |
| 17,000 | 5,600 | 7,800 | |
| 20% confidence | — | 0 | 600 |
| 30% confidence | — | 4,900 | 6,100 |
| 40% confidence | — | 4,900 | 6,100 |
| 50% confidence | — | 4,900 | 6,100 |
| 60% confidence | — | 4,900 | 6,100 |
| 70% confidence | — | 4,900 | 6,100 |
| 80% confidence | — | 4,900 | 6,100 |
I wonder if tonight’s players had access to these data points, because…
What actually happened
| Peter | Tenaya | Terrie | |||
| 17,000 | 5,600 | 7,800 | |||
| 0 | 5,000 | 6,500 | |||
| 17,000 | 600 | 1,300 | |||
…they were very, very close to the recommended numbers.
Our wild-card cut-off could be as low as 600, but it won’t be higher than 5,000. Looks like my lowball estimate was the right one.
We now know the identities of six semifinalists. Who will round out our group of nine tomorrow?
Quarterfinal winners:
- Chris Tempro
- Jason Sterlacci
- Jill Gilbert
- Peter Buchholz
Wild-card race:
- Lauren Gilmore – 11,000 (clinched)
- Nicole Throckmorton – 5,000 (clinched)
- Terrie Trebilcock – 1,300 (52%)
- Tenaya Snider – 600 (7%)
- Dianne Lee – 100
- Hannah Krug – 1
- Greg Greenzweig – 0
- Ian Miller – 0
Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past Teachers Tournament data.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| 19th CENTURY AMERICANS |
| IN 1855 HE WROTE, “THE PUBLIC APPEARS DISPOSED TO BE AMUSED EVEN WHEN THEY ARE CONSCIOUS OF BEING DECEIVED” |
[spoiler]Who was P.T. Barnum?[/spoiler]
[php snippet=63]