Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, May 9, 2016 (Teachers SF #1)
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On tonight’s video, I share my experience filming episodes outside of Culver City. (It’s a strange feeling – one this week’s contestants have to dive into without the benefit of wild cards.)
Kaberi made two solid Daily Double wagers tonight – and as I say in the video, my gut says going big more often leads to victory than to defeat.
|
Peter Buchholz |
Kaberi Chakrabarty |
Nicole Throckmorton |
| 15,600 | 26,600 | 9,400 |
Kaberi’s Penultimate Wager knocked Nicole out of contention (although a dollar more would have been slightly better, in case we got to see one more clue).
This one is straightforward.
What actually happened
| Peter | Kaberi | Nicole | |||
| 15,600 | 26,600 | 9,400 | |||
| 7,500 | 4,601 | 9,400 | |||
| 23,100 | 31,201 | 18,800 | |||
| 15,600 | 4,601 | ||||
Not sure why Peter didn’t go for everything, since there’s no difference between second- and third-place prize money in tournaments. (I’d love it if regular gameplay would follow the same rules.)
Congrats to Kaberi – we’ll see her on Thursday and Friday!
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| LEGISLATION |
| THE ORIGINAL LAW CALLED THIS WAS PASSED IN 1944; TODAY THERE’S A “POST-9/11” VERSION THAT ALSO PAYS FOR 36 MONTHS OF UNIVERSITY EDUCATION |
[spoiler]What is the G.I. Bill?[/spoiler]
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I was surprised by Peter’s bet also, but I went further with the analysis.
1. Peter can double to 31,200, therefore Kaberi should bet exactly 4,601. Even a triple stumper will leave him in first with that bet.
2. If Kaberi bets 4,601 and loses, he’ll have 21,999. So in Peter’s shoes I bet 11,001, thus covering a zero bet by Kaberi and forcing Kaberi to get it right. (I considered a bet of 6,400 also, which still beats 21,999 if Peter gets it right, but that isn’t any better even in a regular game — it is still enough that if Peter misses, Nicole can catch him. Peter would have to bet 6,199 or less to stay above Nicole, and in a game where second place is worth nothing, that doesn’t make sense.)
3. Nicole can’t catch Kaberi unless he does something stupid. So her bet doesn’t matter. (In a regular game, I would bet zero in her shoes, thus beating Peter for second place if he misses. A bet other than zero cannot help her chances, even for second place.)