Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, February 8, 2016 (College SF #1)

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We’re off and running in week two of this year’s College Championship – and we’ve got a high-powered game to kick us off.

I pegged Niki and Gus as the top two seeds heading into the second round, and the producers saw fit to pit them against each other. Emily Sun is trying to play spoiler.

Niki Peters	Gus Woythaler	Emily Sun
14,800	11,400	12,400
UC Berkeley	Stanford	Columbia

It would have been fun to see what Niki would have done with more money on either of those Daily Doubles; Emily left $1,200 on the table, and as a result, she’s in Stratton’s Dilemma.

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

ROYALTY

We’ve got a fun one to start things off. I should note that this year the wild cards are split 3-1-0, meaning at least one will make the two-day total-point affair. (Click to see my past analysis on how wild cards underperform in later rounds.)

First-order calculations

Niki has to wager 10,001 to lock out Emily; Gus can sit tight for the most part because Emily basically has to go all in.

Niki		Gus		Emily
14,800		11,400		12,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,000			6,600	10,400*
					7,600
8,000			4,600

Second-order calculations

We do have some mind games, mostly between Gus and Emily. (Niki has no compelling reason to go smaller than 10,001, particularly with her knowledge base.)

Niki		Gus		Emily
14,800		11,400		12,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,000			4,600	10,400*
5,200			1,800	5,600	7,600
			6,600		2,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Niki and Emily: 2,400
Niki and Gus: 3,400
Emily and Gus: 1,000

Niki		Gus		Emily
14,800		11,400		12,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,000		3,400	4,600	10,400*
5,200		1,000	1,800	5,600	7,600
	2,400		6,600		1,000

Even more fun here with these lime-green wagers…

What actually happened

Niki		Gus		Emily
14,800		11,400		12,400
10,100		1,001		12,400
24,900		10,399		24,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
10,001		3,401	4,599	12,400
5,201		1,001	1,799	5,601	7,599
	2,399		6,599		999

I’m somewhat surprised Niki didn’t get dinged on this final for not including a regnal number.

Often I’d give her a yellow for the extra $99, but it was never going to matter. Between the flu and the $100 lockout wager, she seems to be following in the footsteps of Julia Collins.

Congrats to all three players for a great game!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ROYALTY

IN 1604, FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT, HE APPROVED A LIST OF SCHOLARS TO WORK AT WESTMINSTER, CAMBRIDGE & OXFORD

[spoiler]Who was King James I?[/spoiler]

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