Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 (College SF #2)

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I hate the middle semifinal in Jeopardy! tournaments, because it makes me think it’s Wednesday.

Tough board in the Double Jeopardy! round – that LEATHER category was brutal. Whenever I hear the term “patent leather” I think of Grease and nothing more recent.

Emily Bingham	Sam Deutsch	Hannah Norem
5,100	12,800	9,100
Wright State	USC	Augustana

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

WORLD LITERATURE

Everyone’s still alive, but Sam and Hannah could play some mind games.

First-order calculations

Emily’s in it, but she needs to get it right to have a shot. Sam could wager to stay above her.

Emily		Sam		Hannah
5,100		12,800		9,100
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,300*		5,400		1,100	1,700
			2,600

Second-order calculations

If Hannah plays conservatively, Sam could wager to automatically win… but does he want to take the risk that Hannah goes big?

Emily		Sam		Hannah
5,100		12,800		9,100
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,300*		5,400		1,100	1,700
			2,000	5,700*

What actually happened

Emily		Sam		Hannah
5,100		12,800		9,100
4,001		5,401		9,100
9,101		18,201		18,200
		min	max	min	max
5,100		5,401		1,101	1,699
			1,999	9,100

The contestants continue to impress me with their wagering skills. Congrats to Sam on advancing, and to both Emily and Hannah on a well-played pair of games for each of them.

One semifinal left… which of these wild cards will play for $100,000?

Mon 2/8	Niki	Gus	Emily S.
	UC Berkeley	Stanford	Columbia
Tue 2/9	Emily B.	Sam	Hannah
	Wright State	USC	Augustana (SD)
Wed 2/10	Ziad	Sarah	Kate
	NC State	Pitt	Northeastern

The Final Jeopardy! clue

WORLD LITERATURE

IT WAS ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN 1915 UNDER THE GERMAN TITLE “DIE VERWANDLUNG”, MEANING “THE TRANSFORMATION”

[spoiler]What is The Metamorphosis by Franz Kafka?[/spoiler]

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