Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Wednesday, February 10, 2016 (College SF #3)
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Greetings from Boston, one of those alternate universes where Jeopardy! airs at 7:30. (Not that it matters when you’re watching on DVR, I suppose…)
Man, we were so close to seeing a tie game heading into Final! Sad that a low-level clue will be the difference tonight, one way or another.
|
Ziad Ali |
Sarah Dubnik |
Kate Laubscher |
| 17,800 | 18,200 | 7,000 |
| NC State | Pitt | Northeastern |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| CHILDREN’S AUTHORS |
As it turns out, I’m not the only person who holds that Boston’s approach is somewhat… heretical:
https://www.facebook.com/TheFinalWager/posts/838839852905196
First-order calculations
Kate’s in a tough position here, because Ziad can safely wager to keep her at bay.
| Ziad |
Sarah |
Kate | |||
| 17,800 | 18,200 | 7,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 3,800 | 17,400 | 6,200 | |||
| 17,000 | |||||
| 4,200 | |||||
Second-order calculations
Sarah and Ziad could go back and forth
| Ziad |
Sarah |
Kate | |||
| 17,800 | 18,200 | 7,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 3,000 | 17,400 | 6,200 | |||
| 3,800 | 3,400 | 4,200 | |||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Sarah and Ziad: 400
Sarah and Kate: 11,200
Ziad and Kate: 10,800
| Ziad |
Sarah |
Kate | |||
| 17,800 | 18,200 | 7,000 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 800 | 3,000 | 17,400 | 6,200 | ||
| 3,800 | 3,400 | 4,200 | |||
| 400 | |||||
Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.
What actually happened
| Ziad | Sarah | Kate | |||
| 17,800 | 18,200 | 7,000 | |||
| 401 | 17,401 | 7,000 | |||
| 18,201 | 35,601 | 14,000 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 801 | 2,999 | 17,401 | 6,199 | ||
| 3,799 | 3,401 | 4,199 | |||
| 399 | |||||
Sarah goes big, and the others go home. She’ll take the champ’s podium tonight, as she had the highest score in the semifinals.
Ziad should have wagered at least 800 just in case Sarah wagered 399; that’s why he gets the pink grade.
Here are our finalists:
| Mon 2/8 |
Niki |
Gus |
Emily S. |
| UC Berkeley | Stanford | Columbia | |
| Tue 2/9 |
Emily B. |
Sam |
Hannah |
| Wright State | USC | Augustana (SD) | |
| Wed 2/10 |
Ziad |
Sarah |
Kate |
| NC State | Pitt | Northeastern |
All three of their schools have gold hues, but each gold hue is different.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| CHILDREN’S AUTHORS |
| AT 24 HE BEGAN A VERSE RETELLING OF THE CUPID & PSYCHE MYTH, INCLUDING A CHARACTER NAMED CASPIAN |
[spoiler]Who was C.S. Lewis?[/spoiler]
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