Thursday, April 9, 2015
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Kerry Greene broke our 30-week mega-champ drought last night. Will she nab lucky number 7 this evening?
If she does, she’ll be the first winner of 7 or more games to win four of those games from behind in Final.
|
Kerry Greene |
Lindsey Love |
Chris Hurt |
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 |
Another great game, with a personal favorite category for the last clue:
| REFERENCE WORKS |
There could be some mind games here.
First-order calculations
Second doubles up
If Kerry doubles her score, she’ll have 30,800.
To cover this all-in wager, Chris will need to wager 12,300.
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 15,400 | 12,300 | ||||
| 30,800 | 30,800 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 12,300 | |||||
An incorrect response with that wager will leave Chris with 6,200.
To stay above his total, Kerry can wager up to 9,200.
Lindsey can wager up to 4,000.
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 9,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |||
| 6,200 | 6,200 | 6,200 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 9,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |||
Third doubles up
A successful doubling will put Lindsey at 20,400.
To cover this, Kerry should wager at least 5,000.
(Chris would need to wager at least 1,900, but with Kerry lurking behind, I’d nix this option.)
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 5,000 | 10,200 | 1,900 | |||
| 20,400 | 20,400 | 20,400 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | ||
If Kerry plays it safe and misses, Lindsey would need to wager at least 200.
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 5,000 | 200 | ||||
| 10,400 | 10,400 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
Here’s where things stand after the first order:
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
Second-order calculations
Second’s max vs. first
If Kerry makes the rational maximum wager of 9,200, Chris will need to wager 6,100 to cover her.
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 9,200 | 6,100 | ||||
| 24,600 | 24,600 | ||||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
| 6,100 | |||||
If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 12,400.
To stay above him, Kerry can wager up to 3,000.
Lindsey might consider risking at least 2,200.
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 3,000 | 2,200 | 6,100 | |||
| 12,400 | 12,400 | 12,400 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 2,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
| 3,000 | 200 | 6,100 | |||
Third’s max vs. first
If Lindsey goes for 4,000, Kerry and Chris can respond in this manner, although that’s rather silly for Chris to do, in my view.
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 1,200 | 4,000 | 4,300 | |||
| 14,200 | 14,200 | 14,200 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 2,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
| 3,000 | 200 | 6,100 | |||
| 1,200 | |||||
Lindsey can cover Kerry’s 1,200 correct wager if she really wants to, but that’s low on my list of priorities.
Now, after two orders of analysis:
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 5,000 | 9,200 | 2,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
| 3,000 | 200 | 6,100 | |||
| 1,200 | 6,400* | ||||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Chris and Kerry: 3,100
Chris and Lindsey: 8,300
Kerry and Lindsey: 5,200
| Kerry |
Lindsey |
Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 6,200 | 9,200 | 2,200 | 4,000 | 12,300 | |
| 6,100 | 6,200 | ||||
| 1,200 | 6,400* | ||||
We eliminate the wagers that don’t create the tightest possible ranges.
Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.
What actually happened
| Kerry | Lindsey | Chris | |||
| 15,400 | 10,200 | 18,500 | |||
| 15,399 | 8,501 | 12,301 | |||
| 1 | 18,701 | 30,801 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 6,201 | 9,199 | 2,201 | 3,999 | 12,301 | |
| 1,199 | 6,101 | 6,199 | |||
| 10,200 | |||||
Ay, caramba! Big bets all around – but I like just one of them.
Congrats to Chris on his win, and to Kerry for her fine run – we’ll see her in the TOC.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| REFERENCE WORKS |
| NOW IN ITS FOURTH EDITION, THE BOOK WITH THIS TITLE FIRST APPEARED IN 1918 AS A 43-PAGE GUIDE FOR CORNELL ENGLISH STUDENTS |
[spoiler]What is The Elements of Style (by William Strunk Jr.)?[/spoiler]
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