Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Kerry Greene has won three straight games from behind – a rare feat I dissected in today’s By the Numbers post. Where will she enter Final tonight?

Kaya, at podium #3, came to play; she was calm and collected, with a clear plan to execute the Forrest Bounce and wager aggressively.

With just a few clues to play, she tried to put it away – but missed the $12,000 Daily Double.

Kerry Greene	Travis Miscia	Kaya Chua
16,400	4,200	9,400

She still has a chance to win, however. The category is:

SHAKESPEARE’S CHARACTERS

Now let’s see what each player should do. Remember, we save the dollar changes until the end.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Kaya doubles her score, she’ll have 18,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Kerry will need to wager 2,400.

Kerry		Travis		Kaya
16,400		4,200		9,400
2,400				9,400
18,800				18,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,400

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Kerry with 14,000.

To get above her total, Kaya must wager at least 4,600, which means everything. Travis is eliminated.

Kerry		Travis		Kaya
16,400		4,200		9,400
2,400				4,600
14,000				14,000
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,400				4,600*

A successful doubling will put Travis at 8,400.

Kerry could wager at most 8,000.

Kerry		Travis		Kaya
16,400		4,200		9,400
8,000		4,200		1,000
8,400		8,400		8,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,400	8,000			4,600*

It’s safer to cap that at 7,000 to stay above Kaya, just in case – but I’m unconcerned. I think we all know what Kaya’s going to do.

Kerry		Travis		Kaya
16,400		4,200		9,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,400	7,000			4,600*
	8,000

What actually happened

Kerry		Travis		Kaya
16,400		4,200		9,400
3,600		4,199		9,400
20,000		1		0
min	max
2,401	6,999			9,400
	7,999

I know there’s going to be discussion about Kaya’s play. I thought it was excellent.

Her Daily Double wager was, as well. In fact, I would have gone bigger: if Kerry gets that $2,000 clue, she’s back in contention…

Kerry		Travis		Kaya
14,000		6,200		19,800
2,000				12,000
16,000				31,800

… and the last thing you want on a big-time DD like this is to get it right and still have an opponent in contention.

But why would I go big here? First, there is a limited number of possible answers, and I know all of them.

Second, these language clues are often filled with little hints. Even if you don’t know Spanish, knowing cognates can often help you narrow your focus quite quickly.

Third, I like this category better than a random Final Jeopardy! category. It’s good to have options.

This is not, I should mention, the first time a strong player has been undone by big DD wager in a wordplay category.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

SHAKESPEARE’S CHARACTERS

ONE OF THE BARD’S FEW PLAYS WITH CHILDREN ON STAGE IS THIS ONE WITH 2 BROTHERS WHO LAST APPEAR ALIVE IN ACT 3, SCENE i

[spoiler]What is Richard III?[/spoiler]

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