Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, March 3, 2016

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We’ve got a doozy on tonight’s Jeopardy! episode. (Hey, where’d Keith go?)

He’s probably praying that Ted won’t wager everything.

Rachel Zoch (2x)	Ted Dorsey	Soumia Meiyappan
12,600	10,000	12,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

AMERICAN HISTORY

For the leaders, this one’s easier than the debacle of January 18; because Ted has more than half of their totals, he effectively eliminates the “wager zero” option.

First-order calculations

Ted just needs to keep some money around.

Rachel		Ted		Soumia
12,600		10,000		12,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
12,600			10,000	12,600

Second-order calculations

I suppose there’s a chance someone will wager 7,401, so Ted could keep his wager below 4,800. Not an overwhelmingly convincing option.

Rachel		Ted		Soumia
12,600		10,000		12,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
12,600			10,000	12,600
			4,800

Zero wagers

I prefer the larger range for Ted, because 2,599 feels much more likely than 7,401.

Rachel		Ted		Soumia
12,600		10,000		12,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
12,600		5,200	10,000	12,600
		2,600	4,800

What actually happened

Rachel		Ted		Soumia
12,600		10,000		12,600
12,599		2,615		12,600
25,199		7,385		0
		min	max
12,600 !		5,201	9,999	12,600 !
		2,601	4,799

Now, remember: I’m all about process, not outcome. So while Rachel has the game and the money ($42,699 after three wins), all you have to do is imagine a world in which Soumia responded correctly.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

AMERICAN HISTORY

IN THE 1690s ITS LEGISLATURE REFERRED TO THIS PLACE AS “HIS MAJESTY’S ANCIENT COLONY AND DOMINION”

[spoiler]What is Virginia?[/spoiler]

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