Monday, January 18, 2016

[php snippet=44]

Based on all of the notifications I got this evening on various social media, I had a hunch something big would happen tonight.

Now, the only question: which of two conceivable outcomes is it going to be?

Mike Drummond	Claudia Corriere	Randi Kristensen
13,800	13,800	6,000

Because the “This Week on Jeopardy!” page did not have any games with three new contestants, I figured we’d see our first tiebreaker under the new rules. But what should everyone wager?

Those of you who have some familiarity with this scenario – the only time when a tie could be unavoidable – know that the best wagers for the tied players are (1) nothing or (2) everything.

Mike		Claudia		Randi
13,800		13,800		6,000
13,800 !		13,800 !
0 !		0 !

Randi could play more of a spoiler had she wagered more aggressively on her Daily Doubles, particularly the second one. As it is now, she can’t catch the co-champ co-leaders if either wagers zero, so she has to hope both go for it all.

Mike		Claudia		Randi
13,800		13,800		6,000
				min	max
13,800 !		13,800 !		0	5,999
0 !		0 !

Almost exactly a year ago, I broke down the math of this situation: two players are tied, and third place has less than half of their score. The wagers boil down to each player’s perceived strength on the category, and what they think the other player is going to do.

It might get more complicated, however.

In the comments on that post, Devin Shelley (who has done excellent analyses on Daily Double wagering) pointed out that with tiebreakers now in play, an alternative wager might exist: to finish $1 ahead of a double-up by third.

In that case, that would be exactly 1,799 – nothing more or less will do.

Mike		Claudia		Randi
13,800		13,800		6,000
				min	max
13,800 !		13,800 !		0	5,999
0 !		0 !
1,799 !		1,799 !

I did a quick analysis in response but will do something more in depth over the coming days. For now, here’s your chance to weigh in:

What would you have wagered in Final #Jeopardy! last night if you were tied for the lead?

— The Final Wager (@TheFinalWager) January 19, 2016

Funny enough, I recently made a Fact Primer on tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category:

STATE CAPITALS

And away we go…

What actually happened

Mike		Claudia		Randi
13,800		13,800		6,000
13,800		13,800		6,000
0		0		0
				min	max
13,800 !		13,800 !		0	5,999
0 !		0 !
1,799 !		1,799 !

Welp.

To my knowledge, this is the sixth time a game has ended with no winner. The most recent was the infamous second 2013 Teen Tournament semifinal. The others were:

• the second game ever
• according to Andy at The Jeopardy Fan, another game in Season 1
• a Seniors Tournament quarterfinal (the producers opened up a fifth wild card)
• a game in 1998 (the only two players in FJ! were tied)

And now we’ve almost seen it all: just need a regular-play tiebreaker, a three-way tiebreaker, and all three players failing to make Final, I think.

Some of my favorite tweets this evening:

https://twitter.com/BennyBXB/status/689250631672987649

https://twitter.com/RustyisBack/status/689253774381166595

Got that everyone? No one tell @TheFinalWager that Kevin Spacey is really Kaiser Soze!

— J. Collins Sweaters (@JCSweaters) January 19, 2016

https://twitter.com/WYAnderson/status/689291882879291393

I'm sure @TheFinalWager will have something to say about that one…

— Eddie Timanus (@EddieTimanus) January 19, 2016

https://twitter.com/grogg/status/689232917147455488

https://twitter.com/LHamiltonPP/status/689245390990786561

The Final Jeopardy! clue

STATE CAPITALS

A 1957 EVENT LED TO THE CREATION OF A NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE IN THIS CITY, SIGNED INTO LAW BY A PRESIDENT WHOSE LIBRARY IS NOW THERE TOO

[spoiler]What is Little Rock? (The event was a school’s desegregation; the president was Bill Clinton)[/spoiler]

[php snippet=44]