Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, February 4, 2016 (College QF #4)
[php snippet=49]
The fourth quarterfinal is always my favorite in Jeopardy! tournaments – and especially so tonight, in part because I really, REALLY liked one of the wagers. Which?
I like the fourth quarterfinal because it confirms the identity of three new semifinalists: tonight’s winner and the top two wild cards. Who will those be?
|
Sarah Dubnik |
Hannah Norem |
Gus Woythaler |
| 16,000 | 7,400 | 20,600 |
| Pitt | Augustana (SD) | Stanford |
We’ll be playing with this category:
| 19th CENTURY BOOKS |
Another straightforward one for my calculator:
| Confidence | ||||||||
| Player | Score | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% |
| Sarah | 16,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hannah | 7,400 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 |
| Gus | 20,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
In Sarah’s position, I’d wager up to 1,199 depending on my confidence with the category, just to keep Hannah at bay.
What actually happened
| Sarah | Hannah | Gus | |||
| 16,000 | 7,400 | 20,600 | |||
| 1,199 | 7,000 | 1,622 | |||
| 14,801 | 14,400 | 22,222 | |||
Hannah ekes out the second wild-card slot; one dollar less and she would be sitting in fourth.
Here’s why I loved Gus’s wager: I aimed for the same total myself in my College quarterfinal!
Kevin Brown of LSU must be kicking himself for not wagering to lock out Kate in their match; instead of advancing to the semifinals, he’s now eliminated.
Unless there’s no winner tomorrow, my off-the-cuff prediction of 14,500 as the cut-off is going to be off by a hundred.
Quarterfinal winners:
- Emily Sun (Columbia)
- Emily Bingham (Wright State)
- Sam Deutsch (USC)
- Gus Woythaler (Stanford)
Wild-card race:
- Sarah Dubnik (Pitt) – 14,801 (clinched)
- Hannah Norem (Augustana) – 14,400 (clinched)
- Kate Laubscher (Northeastern) – 14,400 (93%)
- Michael Sieja (Mississippi State) – 14,400 (55%)
- Kevin Brown (LSU) – 14,000
- Amanda Rosner (Northwestern) – 13,200
- Adam Antoszewski (UVA) – 0
- Carissa Pekny (West Point) – 0
First tiebreaker: score before Final Jeopardy!
- Hannah: 7,400
- Kate: 7,200
- Michael: 7,200
Second tiebreaker: score before Double Jeopardy!
- Kate: 3,200
- Michael: 2,600
Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past College Championship data.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| 19th CENTURY BOOKS |
| “INSTINCT”, “HYBRIDISM” & “GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION” ARE CHAPTERS IN THIS BOOK |
[spoiler]What is [On] The Origin of Species by Charles Darwin?[/spoiler]
[php snippet=49]