Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 (College QF #2)
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Night two of the College Championship – how will tonight’s slate of players do?
A higher-scoring game than Monday’s opener. Emily looks good to move on, Kevin is in decent shape, and Kate will probably need to make something happen.
|
Emily Bingham |
Kevin Brown |
Kate Laubscher |
| 17,600 | 12,600 | 7,200 |
| Wright State | LSU | Northeastern |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| ETYMOLOGY |
Here’s what my calculator says each player should do for a wild card:
| Confidence | ||||||||
| Player | Score | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% |
| Emily | 17,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,100 | 1,100 |
| Kevin | 12,600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,801* | 3,300 | 3,300 | 4,500 |
| Kate | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 | 7,200 |
*If Kevin were guaranteed the first wild card, his ideal wager would be 1,000
What actually happened
| Emily | Kevin | Kate | |||
| 17,600 | 12,600 | 7,200 | |||
| 0 | 1,400 | 7,200 | |||
| 17,600 | 14,000 | 14,400 | |||
Not sure why Kevin didn’t add the extra 401 – we’ll see if that comes back to haunt him at the end of the week.
About a year ago I analyzed how varying difficulties of Final Jeopardy! clues is an unfortunate feature of tournaments; this one was way too easy, particularly compared with last night’s Final.
Quarterfinal winners:
- Emily Sun (Columbia)
- Emily Bingham (Wright State University)
Wild-card race:
- Kate Laubscher (Northeastern University) – 14,400 (95%)
- Kevin Brown (Louisiana State University) – 14,000 (75%)
- Adam Antoszewski (UVA) – 0 (<1%)
- Carissa Pekny (West Point) – 0 (<1%)
Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past College Championship data.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| ETYMOLOGY |
| THIS WORD REFERRING TO SOMEONE WHO IS NOT AN EXPERT IS FROM THE LATIN FOR “LOVE” |
[spoiler]What is amateur?[/spoiler]
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