Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, February 1, 2016 (College QF #1)
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As you might have figured, I have a soft spot for the Jeopardy! College Championship. Who will take home the trophy this year?
Tough game tonight – I thought these boards were more difficult in many spots than a regular game. Our scores are lower as a result.
|
Adam Antoszewski |
Carissa Pekny |
Emily Sun |
| 6,400 | 5,000 | 10,900 |
| UVA | West Point | Columbia |
Earlier today, I published ‘ideal’ wagers from various positions. You don’t need to read it to have the sense that Adam and Carissa need to go big.
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| U.S. NATURAL WONDERS |
What actually happened
| Adam | Carissa | Emily | |||
| 6,400 | 5,000 | 10,900 | |||
| 6,400 | 5,000 | 1,901 | |||
| 0 | 0 | 8,999 | |||
| 6,400 | 5,000 | 1,901 | |||
| 4,501 | 899 | ||||
They did what they had to do, but this was a tricky Final – with huge negbait. Congrats to Emily on the win, and congrats to Adam and Carissa for a game well played.
Quarterfinal winners:
- Emily Sun (Columbia)
Wild-card race:
- Adam Antoszewski (UVA) – 0 (<1%)
- Carissa Pekny (West Point) – 0 (<1%)
Percentage represents probability of advancing based on past College Championship data.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| U.S. NATURAL WONDERS |
| TEDDY ROOSEVELT CALLED IT “THE ONE GREAT SIGHT WHICH EVERY AMERICAN SHOULD SEE” |
[spoiler]What is the Grand Canyon?[/spoiler]
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Please define negbait
I would’ve put a minimum of 5,400 for Adam to cover that possible 899 amount from Emily – and from her position I would most likely make the cover bet with scores of that magnitude since the chances are too great of not moving on if both her and Adam getting FJ! right (now if we had scores with the same ratio but greater amounts where a wildcard berth would be more likely with a “small” wager, or if Adam was within 2/3 of Emily and thus she could miss on a Final that everyone got wrong, then I’d be more likely to consider the bet that would keep Clarissa locked out of an automatic win).
Keith, the QF1 link in the 2016 College Championship mini-calendar on the right is broken (the link specifies 2015 not 2016). I thought this was a terrible FJ despite the fact that I guessed it…