Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Friday, September 23, 2016

We started our week off with a new champ, and he hasn’t left us yet. Will he go into next week?

Man, that True Daily Double from Elena! Be still, my heart.

LATE DAILY DOUBLE MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS, $1600
Seth Wilson	Elena Stuewe	Charlie Geer
20,300	9,400	4,600
$4400 REMAINS ON BOARD

So often we see someone wager $2,000 or some other useless amount. It’s also worth noting that Elena went hunting for it (and picked the right level).

Seth	Elena	Charlie
21,900	18,800	4,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

AFRICAN GEOGRAPHY

Elena’s big bet puts Charlie into mathematical contention, too.

First-order calculations

Not that he has much of a chance, however; Elena can easily keep him locked out, leading us to…

Seth		Elena		Charlie
21,900		18,800		4,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
15,700			9,600	1,600

Second-order calculations

…a Shore’s Conjecture situation, where Seth can get cute with his wager if he thinks Elena will be conservative (slash rational).

Seth		Elena		Charlie
21,900		18,800		4,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
15,700			9,600	1,600
6,500			3,400

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Seth and Elena: 3,100

Seth		Elena		Charlie
21,900		18,800		4,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
15,700		6,200	9,600	1,600
6,500		3,100	3,400
	3,100

What actually happened

Seth		Elena		Charlie
21,900		18,800		4,600
0		3,101		1,601
21,900		15,699		2,999
min	max	min	max
15,701		6,201	9,599	1,601
6,501		3,101	3,399
	3,099

Wow. Wow wow wow! I would have never seen that coming. (And that, my friends, is why you always wager to force your opponent to get it right.)

That’s $127,700 for Seth after 5 wins, and we’ll see him again on Monday. Wow!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

AFRICAN GEOGRAPHY

THE ZAMBEZI RIVER REACHES THE OCEAN IN THIS COUNTRY THAT LENDS ITS NAME TO THE BODY OF WATER WHERE IT HAPPENS

[spoiler]What is Mozambique? (Mozambique Channel)[/spoiler]

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