Monday, May 18, 2015

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We endured a week of Celebrity contestants to return to the affable Andrew Haringer, who has two wins in the bag. Will he nab a third?

As you might know, I offer all five-time champs the opportunity to pick the theme color for the week following their loss. This would be 7xer Greg Seroka’s turn, but he’s not on Twitter, so I have no way to ask him that isn’t entirely sketchy (and not just sorta sketchy).

Instead, this week’s hue is based on the logo of La Montaña Restaurant in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where Greg is the executive chef.

Tonight’s game was notable in that all three Daily Doubles were in the second row – and both Andrew and Fritz failed to take advantage of them in Double Jeopardy!.

Speaking of which, guess who else under-wagered on an $800 Daily Double in a category on the atomic elements?

Here are our scores heading into Final:

Andrew Haringer	Cindy De La Peña	Fritz Brantley
13,400	800	16,600

Those two will duke it out with this category:

ANIMATED MOVIE CHARACTERS

Cindy’s low score makes things easy tonight – a nice way to ease back in to regular play.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Andrew doubles his score, he’ll have 26,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Fritz will need to wager 10,200.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
13,400				10,200
26,800				26,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
				10,200

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Fritz with 6,400.

To stay above his total, Andrew can wager up to 7,000.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
7,000				10,200
6,400				6,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,000			10,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Cindy at 1,600.

Fritz could wager at most 15,000.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
11,800		800		15,000
1,600		1,600		1,600
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,000			10,200	15,000

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,000			10,200	15,000

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Andrew makes the rational maximum wager of 7,000, Fritz will need to wager 3,800 to cover him.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
7,000				3,800
20,400				20,400
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,000			10,200	15,000
				3,800

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 12,800.

To stay above him, Andrew can wager up to 600.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
600				3,800
12,800				12,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,000			10,200	15,000
	600			3,800

Note that he can’t cover a zero wager by Fritz with this range, which opens up a small can of worms.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,000			10,200	15,000
	600			3,800

Zero wagers

Fritz and Andrew are separated by 3,200, so we look to see where we can plug that amount – and its double, 6,400 – into our ranges.

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
6,400	7,000			10,200	15,000
	600			3,800	6,400
					2,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Andrew		Cindy		Fritz
13,400		800		16,600
7,000		799		10,201
6,400		1,599		6,399
min	max			min	max
6,401	6,999			10,201	14,999
	599			3,801	6,399
					2,599

Andrew has now won 3 games and $45,999 – and all three wins have come from behind. Kerry Greene did that in three consecutive games, too, which I highlighted as highly improbable. (Thanks to Shane for pointing this out in the comments to that thread.)

I’m giving him a yellow because his wager was reasonable, if slightly flawed. (There’s no point for Fritz to wager for the tie here, but you never know.)

Andrew can take a big leap on the TOC leaderboard tomorrow with a fourth win – and, for all intents and purposes, Dava-Leigh Brush is now out of contention.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ANIMATED MOVIE CHARACTERS

HER LOOK WAS PARTLY INSPIRED BY DESCENDANT SHIRLEY “LITTLE DOVE” CUSTALOW MCGOWAN & BY MODEL CHRISTY TURLINGTON

[spoiler]Who is Pocahontas?[/spoiler]

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