Friday, March 6, 2015

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BRILLIANT IDEAS for $1,600: Keith should know better than to watch Jeopardy! here

The correct question: Did he really watch it at the gym again?

Why??

For my earliest examples of what happens when I watch on the treadmill, check out here and here.

Laura Lorson	Nic Pereira	Rachael Sims
13,800	10,000	19,500

We have a wordy Final Jeopardy! category tonight:

ROCK AND ROLL HALL OF FAME INDUCTION SPEECHES

Laura is in Stratton’s Dilemma, so we’ll see which way she goes.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Laura doubles her score, she’ll have 27,600.

To cover, Rachael will need to wager 8,100.

Laura	Nic	Rachael
13,800	10,000	19,500
13,800		8,100
27,600		27,600

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Rachael with 11,400.

To stay above her total, Laura can wager up to 2,400.

Nic must respond correctly to have a shot, so all-in is the way to go.

Laura	Nic	Rachael
13,800	10,000	19,500
2,400	1,400	8,100
11,400	11,400	11,400

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Nic at 20,000.

To cover this, Laura should wager at least 6,200, which means she might as well go for everything.

Rachael would need to wager at least 500.

Laura	Nic	Rachael
13,800	10,000	19,500
6,200	10,000	500
20,000	20,000	20,000

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

Ignoring Nic for now, if Laura makes the rational maximum wager of 2,400, Rachael will need to wager 3,300 to stay above her.

Laura	Nic	Rachael
13,800	10,000	19,500
2,400		3,300
16,200		16,200

And that is that.

My preference is for everyone to wager big, but with a category like this one, some players might be more reluctant.

What actually happened

Strangely enough, Rachael had the best wager of the three.

Here’s why you wager everything if you need to get it right to have a chance:

With his 3,000 wager, Nic has no chance to win – which is why he gets the black.

Laura is going to lose if she’s wrong either way, but by withholding some of her total, she will lose if she’s right.

If you’re gonna play, don’t play for second place.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

ROCK AND ROLL HALL OF FAME INDUCTION SPEECHES

SPRINGSTEEN SAID DAVID SANCIOUS WAS “THE ONLY MEMBER OF THE GROUP WHO EVER ACTUALLY LIVED” THERE

[spoiler]What is E Street?[/spoiler]

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