Daily analysis, Friday, March 14

I’ll get a video up over the weekend, but for now, let’s see if I can explain this using my words.

We’ve got a tight game heading into Final. Had Matt not guessed on the penultimate 1,600 clue, we would have had a tie situation.

Matt Kish: 12,800
Thad McCollum: 14,400
Cameron Yahr: 11,800

The Final Jeopardy! category: ACTORS & OSCARS

This is a difficult situation with plenty of nuances, so let’s break it down step by step.

Thad should wager 11,200 to cover a double-up by Matt.

Matt can wager up to 9,600 to stay above an incorrect response by Thad, and Cameron can wager up to 8,600.

Now, Matt and Cameron can do a little dance.

Matt is in a tough situation, because to cover Cameron, he needs to wager at least 10,800. If he gets it wrong with this wager, he’ll lose to Thad regardless, so he might as well go all-in if he chooses this larger amount.

Cameron has a few considerations. As the third-place player in a tight game, she’s in prime position should the clue be really tough. She’ll want to cover zero wagers by both Matt and Thad by wagering 2,600; she can also cover “unsafe” wagers by both by putting up 5,200.

Then we look at what happens should she wager the “maximum” 8,600. Matt will need to wager 7,600 to cover this. If he gets it wrong with this wager, Cameron can wager up to 6,600 to stay above him.

Cameron’s probably kicking herself after this one. And as for Thad, $2,400 isn’t that much in Jeopardy! winnings, but he’ll be back on Monday for a crack at more.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for March 14, 2014 (ACTORS & OSCARS):

HE WAS NOMINATED FOR OSCARS IN 5 CONSECUTIVE DECADES; THE LAST NOD WAS FOR HIS 1978 ROLE AS A NAZI HUNTER

Correct response: Who was Sir Laurence Olivier?