Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, July 5, 2016

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When Alex Trebek offers his take on wagering, you’re generally best off assuming the opposite is correct.

Liz did not make a “gutsy” wager last night; she did what she had to do. (She didn’t wager almost everything, either.)

Notes for tonight’s video:

Liz is in second again tonight, but in a much better position.

Liz Hedreen (1x)	TJ Bateman	Julie Vazquez-Souza
16,200	18,800	6,600

Our Final Jeopardy! category:

FAMOUS AMERICANS

We’ve got a bit of Shoretegy to deal with here. Also, once again, Archer comes to the rescue on a high-value clue:

First-order calculations

Julie, in third, is in a “Strong” position against TJ, but Liz can wager to keep her locked out.

Liz		TJ		Julie
16,200		18,800		6,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	3,000	13,600			1,400
	11,000		5,600

Second-order calculations

TJ and Liz can go back and forth with the mind games, should either so desire.

Liz		TJ		Julie
16,200		18,800		6,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,200	3,000	13,600			1,400
8,200	11,000	400	5,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
TJ and Liz: 2,600
TJ and Julie: 12,200
Liz and Julie: 9,600

Liz		TJ		Julie
16,200		18,800		6,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,600	3,000	13,600			1,400
8,200	9,600	400	5,200

This was a good Final Jeopardy! clue, and watching the camera pan across the players gave a preview of what was to come…

What actually happened

Liz		TJ		Julie
16,200		18,800		6,600
16,200		13,601		6,600
0		5,199		0
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,601	2,999	13,601			1,399
8,201	9,599	401	5,199

Another “gutsy” wager from Liz? No, just a costly one. TJ lives to fight another day – and I look forward to seeing what he does with his Daily Double(s) tomorrow, should he find any. (I was surprised he didn’t go hunting more toward the end of the second round.)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FAMOUS AMERICANS

IN 1902, 25 YEARS AFTER HIS DEATH, A N.Y. TIMES ARTICLE ABOUT A FAMILY REUNION LISTED HIS DIRECT DESCENDANTS AT MORE THAN 1,000

[spoiler]Who was Brigham Young?[/spoiler]

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