Friday, January 15, 2016

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For the second straight week, we have a 3-day champ entering Friday’s game. Will Amelia Hershberger break our drought of four-timers?

She’ll need to pull off the unlikely: a third win from a trailing position. (Others have done it, so it’s not impossible.)

Amelia Hershberger	Jenn Frohlich	Mike Drummond
6,400	10,400	11,600

Of course, it could all come down to wagering with this Final Jeopardy! category:

WESTERN HEMISPHERE FLAGS

This is a tight one.

First-order calculations

Jen has a large safe range, while Mike will almost certainly go big.

Amelia		Jenn		Mike
6,400		10,400		11,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,600	4,000	2,400	8,000	9,200
				1,200

Second-order calculations

Now we get into some interesting territory; Amelia and Mike both have potential tie wagers.

Amelia		Jenn		Mike
6,400		10,400		11,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
4,000	4,000	2,400	5,600	9,200
1,600			8,000	1,200	1,200
				6,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Mike and Jenn: 1,200
Mike and Amelia: 5,200
Jenn and Amelia: 4,000

Amelia		Jenn		Mike
6,400		10,400		11,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
4,000	4,000	2,400	4,000	9,200
1,600			5,600	1,200	1,200
			8,000	6,800

This could get interesting.

What actually happened

Amelia		Jenn		Mike
6,400		10,400		11,600
5,200		10,400		9,201
1,200		0		20,801
		min	max	min	max
4,000 !		2,401	3,999	9,201
			5,599	9,200 !
			7,999	1,200 !

I think Amelia tried to calculate her maximum wager by aiming for the difference between Mike and Jenn. She should have taken twice the difference.

We’ve had a lot of second-place contestants going for broke for no particular reason lately; Jenn is the latest in that trend. Remember, extra cash is nice if you win, but it’s far better to maximize your chances of actually winning the game.

Luckily, Mike rendered all of that moot with a good get on Final. If anyone wants to share how they arrived at the right answer (or even how they failed to, like I did), please share in the comments below.

Have a great weekend!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

WESTERN HEMISPHERE FLAGS

THIS COUNTRY WHOSE NAME CONTAINS A RELIGIOUS ORDER FOUNDED IN THE 1200s HAS A BIBLE ON ITS FLAG

[spoiler]What is the Dominican Republic?[/spoiler]

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