Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
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I’m not feeling so hot tonight, so I’m hoping for an easy situation, particularly after the “fun” of last night’s wager-to-tie scenario.
Things look innocuous enough here, although the scores are close enough that they could cause some problems:
|
Chris Becker (2x) |
Manisha Parekh |
Zach Binney |
| 14,800 | 8,500 | 12,600 |
…with this category:
| HISTORIC OBJECTS |
Before I saw tonight’s game, I got hold of an article about Manisha’s roller derby team. That made me hope she’d talk about it with Alex, and maybe Fred Vaughn would enter the conversation. Wish granted.
First-order calculations
Right from the gate, as you’ll see in the video, I recognized this as the type of situation I didn’t want to handle tonight.
| Chris |
Manisha |
Zach | |||
| 14,800 | 8,500 | 12,600 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,400 | 8,200 | |
| 300 | |||||
| 2,200 | |||||
Second-order calculations
Let’s use the mind games to keep filling in the tie possibilities.
| Chris |
Manisha |
Zach | |||
| 14,800 | 8,500 | 12,600 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 10,400 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,400 | 8,200 |
| 6,000 | 300 | 300 | 3,800 | ||
| 2,200 | 2,200 | 0 | |||
Zero wagers
Score differences:
Chris and Zach: 2,200
Chris and Manisha: 6,300
Zach and Manisha: 4,100
| Chris |
Manisha |
Zach | |||
| 14,800 | 8,500 | 12,600 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 10,400 | 4,100 | 4,100 | 4,400 | 8,200 |
| 6,000 | 6,300 | 300 | 300 | 2,200 | 3,800 |
| 2,200 | 2,200 | 8,200* | 0 | ||
I’m hoping Chris will go for the lockout, Zach will go for 4,401, and Manisha will wager 300.
What actually happened
| Chris | Manisha | Zach | |||
| 14,800 | 8,500 | 12,600 | |||
| 10,401 | 5,000 | 4,401 | |||
| 25,201 | 13,500 | 17,001 | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,400 | 10,401 | 300 | 301 | 4,401 | 8,199 |
| 6,001 | 6,299 | 4,100 | 4,101 | 2,201 | 3,799 |
| 2,200 | 2,201 | 8,500 | 0 | 2 | |
Good wagering for the gentlemen; Manisha’s wager seems like a nice round number. Practice your math, folks!
Chris is on a roll, winning $52,999 through three games. Will he make it four tomorrow?
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| HISTORIC OBJECTS |
| EXHIBITED IN THE BRITISH MUSEUM SINCE 1802, IT WAS THE CENTERPIECE IN A 1999 EXHIBITION CALLED “CRACKING CODES” |
[spoiler]What is the Rosetta Stone?[/spoiler]
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