Wednesday, March 11, 2015

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We have a shot at history this evening: another married couple of Jeopardy! champions.

In tonight’s photo, we have another of my parents’ canines: Abbey, a chihuahua-pug mix. She won “best kisser” at the Green Mountain Pug Rescue Pug Social two years straight.

After our first runaway in a while, we’ve got another good one tonight.

Penny Reid	Kristin Sausville	Jim Luh
12,400	15,000	9,200

Kristin entered the Double Jeopardy! round with (-$200), but ran the first category on films to get up to $5,800. I was hoping she’d make a True Daily Double of that second-level lit clue, but it’s easy to get cold feet under the lights.

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

2014 ALBUMS

I’m guessing our players will be hip to this one.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Penny doubles her score, she’ll have 24,800.

To cover this all-in wager, Kristin will need to wager 9,800.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
12,400	9,800
24,800	24,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Kristin with 5,200.

To stay above her total, Penny can wager up to 7,200.

Jim can wager up to 4,000.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
7,200	9,800	4,000
5,200	5,200	5,200

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Jim at 18,400.

To cover this, Penny should wager at least 6,000.

(Kristin would need to wager at least 3,400, but this is somewhat questionable.)

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
6,000	3,400	9,200
18,400	18,400	18,400

If Penny is incorrect with that wager, Jim can wager up to 2,800 to stay above her total.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
6,000		2,800
6,400		6,400

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Penny makes the rational maximum wager of 7,200, Kristin will need to wager 4,600 to cover her.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
7,200	4,600
19,600	19,600

If she’s wrong with that wager, she’ll be left with 10,400.

To stay above her, Penny can wager up to 2,000.

Jim might consider risking at least 1,200.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
2,000	4,600	1,200
10,400	10,400	10,400

Third’s max vs. second

I’m going to pick the more conservative of Jim’s wagering options.

Against Penny, Jim can wager at most 2,800. With a correct response, he’ll have 12,000.

To stay above this, Penny can wager at most 400.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
400		2,800
12,000		12,000

If she is correct, Penny will have 12,800.

To account for this, Jim will need to wager at least 3,600.

Penny	Kristin	Jim
12,400	15,000	9,200
400		3,600
12,800		12,800

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Zero wagers

Not much doing here.

Now let’s rank our wagers based on what we think everyone else will do…

What actually happened

Jim needs to cap that wager at 2,799 – he would have lost by $100 had the clue been a triple stumper!

All around, a solid game – yet the carousel spins on. Maybe Kristin got some tips from this guy on how to put together a monster run. We’ll find out tomorrow!

By the way, Dan Pawson and his wife, Andrea Saenz, are both Jeopardy! champions.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

2014 ALBUMS

WITH A NEW RELEASE & 8 VIRAL VIDEOS TO GO WITH IT, HE HAD THE FIRST COMEDY ALBUM IN 50 YEARS TO TOP THE BILLBOARD 200

[spoiler]Who is “Weird Al” Yankovic?[/spoiler]

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