2015 Teachers Tournament, QF #3

2015 Teachers Tournament
By the Numbers: The difficulty of predicting wild cards
Quarterfinals					Semifinals			Finals
1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	1	2

Usually the seated video means I’m really angry about something; that’s not the case tonight.

It’s just that the computer will be more useful than the whiteboard as there’s nothing to calculate.

Tracy Alexander	Eric Hack	MaryLou McKenna
-1,600	17,800	6,800

MaryLou will use this Final Jeopardy! category to determine her wager:

STATE FLAGS

Her score is in the 40th percentile of all historical non-winning scores, so she stands to improve.

But by how much? According to my calculator:

	MaryLou
Score	6,800
Currently	40%
20% confident	0
30% confident	100
40% confident	100
50% confident	5,700
60% confident	6,000
70% confident	6,300
80% confident	6,300

If, for some reason, she hates state flags, she should wager zero. Otherwise, she should put up close to everything.

But there’s no reason to dislike this category. Odds are it’s going to rest on something somewhat unrelated – and in this case, there is a way to get there that doesn’t involve knowing both flags, as I explain in the video.

What actually happened

MaryLou falls to third place in the wild card hunt. We’ll see if she can hang on with that score, but it’s going to be tough.

Semifinalist watch

Winners
Colin O’Grady
Lydia Cuffman
Eric Hack

Wild-card standings
includes my estimated probability of advancing based on past data

Erin McLaughlin – 12,600 (99%)
Cathy Farrell – 4,600 (35%)
MaryLou McKenna – 3,000 (6%)
Martha Jackson – 400 (0%)

Michael Jones – 0
Tracy Alexander – -1,600

The Final Jeopardy! clue

STATE FLAGS

IT IS MENTIONED IN THE MOTTO ON MINNESOTA’S FLAG AND IS DEPICTED ON ALASKA’S

[spoiler]What is the North Star? (L’Etoile du Nord on Minnesota’s flag)[/spoiler]

 

2015 Teachers Tournament
By the Numbers: The difficulty of predicting wild cards
Quarterfinals					Semifinals			Finals
1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	1	2