2015 Teachers Tournament, QF #5

2015 Teachers Tournament
By the Numbers: The difficulty of predicting wild cards
Quarterfinals					Semifinals			Finals
1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	1	2

I calculated a 49% probability that all three of Friday’s players would make it to the semifinals. Which way did the coin flip?

A situation almost exactly like the one last night, except both Kate and Jay can catch Adam.

Adam Elkana-Hale	Kate La Riviere-Gagner	Jay Singleton
17,000	9,000	8,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

SHAKESPEARE

Adam should wager 1,001 for the outright win; if he’s wrong, his 15,999 score is still in the 81st percentile of all wild-card scores.

If only Kate and Jay knew they could just wager zero!

	Kate	Jay
Score	9,000	8,600
Currently	49%	47%
20% confident	100	100
30% confident	100	100
40% confident	300	100
50% confident	6,100	7,000
60% confident	8,100	8,000
70% confident	8,600	8,500
80% confident	8,900	8,500

What actually happened

Ouch! Jay committed the same error Jason Newell did in November – he crossed out the correct response in favor of a name given in the clue.

Let me tell you, as someone who flubbed his last Final Jeopardy! because he forgot the category was U.S. ISLANDS: it’s really hard up there, and sometimes the lights get the better of you.

Semifinalist watch

Six of our semifinalists are women – and had Adam also not made it, that number would have been seven. Outchange, indeed.

The producers have pretty much free rein here: all four wild cards are from different games. Will they put one male in every game, or will they put three women in one, guaranteeing a female presence in the finals? We’ll see.

Because it’s fun, here’s my prediction for the semifinals:
Colin – Jennifer – Cathy
Kate – Eric – Lydia
Adam – Erin – Mary

UPDATED: here are the actual match-ups. I had two right in each game, so… go me?

The Final Jeopardy! clue

SHAKESPEARE

AFTER ENGLAND, MORE SHAKESPEARE PLAYS ARE SET IN THIS PRESENT-DAY COUNTRY THAN IN ANY OTHER

[spoiler]What is Italy?[/spoiler]

 

2015 Teachers Tournament
By the Numbers: The difficulty of predicting wild cards
Quarterfinals					Semifinals			Finals
1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	1	2