2015 Teachers Tournament, QF #2

2015 Teachers Tournament
By the Numbers: The difficulty of predicting wild cards
Quarterfinals					Semifinals			Finals
1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	1	2

As tonight’s video will show, I’m due for a haircut.

That’ll be up soon.

I have to say the lights do strange things to your brain when you’re on stage. I’m sure Lydia doesn’t actually think Benghazi is a term for a tower; heck, I once said Judaism was the main religion of the Moroccan Berbers.

Despite that flub, she has the lead heading into Final. We saw a strong game from all three players tonight.

Lydia Cuffman	Cathy Farrell	Michael Jones
15,400	14,600	9,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

MATH TERMS

!!!!!

You know I’m all over this, and I’m wagering big (unless I don’t need to). But what should our players do?

We can do some calculations based on what we think the others will will do – I’ve provided a few suggestions below.

As an alternative, we can look at these totals in the context of historical scores, as I did yesterday. Here’s where each stands as of now:

For fun – and yes, I know my definition of “fun” is strange, but whatever – I built a calculator to tell me the best wager for various confidence levels. It’s based strictly on wild cards – winning the game is not taken into account.

	Lydia	Cathy	Michael
Scores	15,400	14,600	9,400
Currently	79%	76%	50%
20% confident	200	0	0
30% confident	200	0	0
40% confident	200	500	0
50% confident	200	500	7,200
60% confident	3,700	2,900	8,200
70% confident	5,000	6,500	9,300
80% confident	6,900	7,700	9,300

You know, I thought this clue was a slam dunk, and spent the 30 seconds smugly patting myself on the back for knowing the response.

Sometimes Jeopardy! is like the SAT: even if you find a decent answer, there might be a better one, so think through all of the options.

What actually happened

This tricky clue changed the odds for our two non-winners significantly.

Semifinalist watch

Winners
Colin O’Grady
Lydia Cuffman

Wild-card standings
includes my estimated probability of advancing based on past data

Erin McLaughlin – 12,600 (89%)
Cathy Farrell – 4,600 (7%)
Martha Jackson – 400 (0%)
Michael Jones – 0 (0%)

The Final Jeopardy! clue

MATH TERMS

THIS WORD FOR A PROCESS THAT LEADS TO A SOLUTION TO A PROBLEM COMES FROM THE ARABIC NAME OF A 9th CENTURY MATHEMATICIAN

[spoiler]What is algorithm? (named for Mohammed ibn-Musa al-Khwarizmi)

For the record, I said algebra[/spoiler]

 

2015 Teachers Tournament
By the Numbers: The difficulty of predicting wild cards
Quarterfinals					Semifinals			Finals
1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	1	2