Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, May 30, 2016

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It’s our first regular game in a long time without Buzzy Cohen. Will his vanquisher repeat as champ?

She’s in second place, but might have a strategic advantage heading into Final over Bryna.

Erin Delaney (1x)	Bryna Fischer	Wilcley Lima
14,800	17,600	3,800

As well as a category advantage, given her familiarity with literature:

PLAYWRIGHTS

This is a Shore’s Conjecture situation.

First-order calculations

Wilcley has to go all in, while Erin and Bryna are going to have some mind games.

Erin		Bryna		Wilcley
14,800		17,600		3,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,200	12,000		1,800*
	9,200		10,000

Second-order calculations

If Bryna wagers 4,400 to out-Shore Erin, Erin can respond by wagering small.

Erin		Bryna		Wilcley
14,800		17,600		3,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	7,200	12,000		1,800*
	1,600	4,400	10,000

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Bryna and Erin: 2,800
Bryna and Wilcley: 13,800
Erin and Wilcley: 11,000

Erin		Bryna		Wilcley
14,800		17,600		3,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
5,600	7,200	12,000	13,800	1,800*
	1,600	4,400	5,600
			10,000

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Erin		Bryna		Wilcley
14,800		17,600		3,800
14,798		12,001		0
29,598		5,599		3,800
min	max	min	max
5,601	7,199	12,001	13,799	3,800
	1,599	4,401	5,599
			9,999

A bad move by Erin, despite the category… and an even worse move by Wilcley. He didn’t give himself a chance to win.

Erin keeps going: $53,999 after two games.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

PLAYWRIGHTS

AN 1892 PUNCH CARTOON DEPICTS HIM LOUNGING WITH A CIGARETTE & HOLDING A FAN WITH A NAME WRITTEN ON IT

[spoiler]Who was Oscar Wilde?[/spoiler]

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