Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Thursday, February 25, 2016

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I really enjoyed tonight’s Jeopardy! match. (It seems the audience did as well, too – that’s the first time in a while I’ve heard applause before the second round.)

Now, how about the wagering?

Here are our scores heading into Final:

Jill Panall (1x)	Rebecca Harlow	Chris Giglio
9,400	12,800	15,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

MEDITERRANEAN ISLANDS

This is going to be a fun one.

First-order calculations

Rebecca, in second, is just slightly closer to the lead than to third, meaning she’ll have some wiggle room in her ‘ideal’ range.

Jill		Rebecca		Chris
9,400		12,800		15,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	2,600	6,000	6,800	9,800
	3,400
				3,000

Second-order calculations

There is the potential for some mind games – even more so than last night.

Jill		Rebecca		Chris
9,400		12,800		15,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,600	2,600	6,000	6,800	9,800
	3,400		800	3,800

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Chris and Rebecca: 3,000
Chris and Jill: 6,400
Rebecca and Jill: 3,400

Jill		Rebecca		Chris
9,400		12,800		15,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,600	2,600	6,000	6,800	9,800	12,800
	3,400		800	3,800	6,000
6,800*		3,000	3,400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Jill		Rebecca		Chris
9,400		12,800		15,800
6,402		7,200		10,000
15,802		5,600		25,800
min	max	min	max	min	max
2,600	2,601	6,001	6,799	9,801	12,799
	3,399		799	3,801	5,999
9,400		3,001	3,399

I’m disappointed that neither Jill nor Rebecca really thought this one through. Rebecca’s wager would have lost to Chris had they both missed. And Jill failed to cover the potential 3,399 wager out of Rebecca.

Ah, well – Chris gets both green marks tonight, and deservedly so. We’ll see him tomorrow!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

MEDITERRANEAN ISLANDS

THIS 1,400-SQUARE-MILE TOURIST DESTINATION’S NAME COMES FROM A LATIN WORD FOR “GREATER”

[spoiler]What is Mallorca (or Majorca)?[/spoiler]

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