Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Friday, February 26, 2016

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I did Friday’s analysis “LIVE”! Watch what happens on tonight’s episode – it’s a good one.

Speaking of good, how about that game? Nice work by our three gentlemen.

Chris Giglio (1x)	David Bradley	Bill Murphy
13,400	17,000	12,200

David has a great backstory. I talk about it a bit in the video, although you can read about it here, too.

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

CLASSICAL MUSIC

I really constrained myself tonight in terms of time, but I managed to squeak this analysis out.

By the way, a quick plug for a trivia quiz of which I’m particularly proud: a game in which you try to pick the least-popular correct answer from a set of options.

For example, Question 1: name one of the states whose official quarter is seen in this montage. But try not to pick the one everyone else did!

If you want to play, check out the full quiz.

Anyway, on with the show.

First-order calculations

Chris is stuck in Stratton’s Dilemma – he should go for broke to cover Bill. On the other hand, Bill can play coy.

Chris		David		Bill
13,400		17,000		12,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,000*		9,800			5,000
	6,200

Second-order calculations

Some mind games, but none too convincing. (Bill’s potential all-in wager is a bad move.)

Chris		David		Bill
13,400		17,000		12,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,000*		9,800			5,000
3,800	6,200
		2,600		7,400*

Zero wagers

Score differences:
David and Chris: 3,600
David and Bill: 4,800
Chris and Bill: 1,200

Chris		David		Bill
13,400		17,000		12,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,000*		9,800		4,800	5,000
3,800	6,200			2,400
	1,200	2,600	3,600	1,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Chris		David		Bill
13,400		17,000		12,200
13,400		10,000		2,000
26,800		27,000		10,200
min	max	min	max	min	max
13,400		9,801		4,801	4,999
3,801	6,199			2,401
	1,199	2,601	3,599	1,201

That makes three games in a row that we’ve had wagers of $10,000 from our leader (and ultimate winner). That’s also three different champions, so we’re really spreading the love around.

Two great, great weeks of television – it’s a shame all of these solid players got The Call at the same time! In any case, congrats to David, and thanks to Chris and Bill as well for a fun half-hour.

We’ll see you Monday!

The Final Jeopardy! clue

CLASSICAL MUSIC

THIS TITLE OF A BRITISH CEREMONIAL MARCH COMES FROM A LINE IN SHAKESPEARE THAT CONTINUES “OF GLORIOUS WAR!”

[spoiler]What is Pomp & Circumstance?[/spoiler]

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