July 31, 2015

Friday, July 31, 2015

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This one’s up a little later than I intended – but only because I was waiting for a special guest host to have some availability in his schedule.

Five-timer Scott Lord fell on Monday; since then, we haven’t had a repeat champ. Andy’s going to need some help to break that slide.

Andy

King

Tara

Anderson

Mags

Doss

7,200

10,500

13,200

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

CELEBRITIES IN SONG LYRICS

I’m lucky I have my brother on the show to explain how easy the wagering situation is for at least one of our players.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Tara doubles her score, she’ll have 21,000.

To cover this all-in wager, Mags will need to wager 7,800.

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
		10,500		7,800
		21,000		21,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
				7,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Mags with 5,400.

To stay above his total, Tara can wager up to 5,100.

Andy can wager up to 1,800.

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
1,800		5,100		7,800
5,400		5,400		5,400

min	max	min	max	min	max
	1,800		5,100	7,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Andy at 14,400.

To cover this, Tara should wager at least 3,900.

(Mags would need to wager at least 1,200, but this is somewhat questionable.)

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
7,200		3,900		1,200
14,400		14,400		14,400

min	max	min	max	min	max
	1,800	3,900	5,100	7,800

				1,200

If Tara is incorrect with that wager, Andy can wager up to 600 to stay above her total.

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
600		3,900
6,600		6,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800
				1,200

On the off chance Mags goes for 1,200, Andy would need to wager at least 4,800 to be in contention – that’s an all-in wager, but questionable.

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800
4,800*				1,200

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Tara makes the rational maximum wager of 5,100, Mags will need to wager 2,400 to cover her.

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
		5,100		2,400
		15,600		15,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800			2,400
4,800*				1,200

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 10,800.

In that case, Tara would have to wager 300 and respond correctly.

Andy might consider risking at least 3,600. Still all in. Still questionable.

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
3,600		300		2,400
10,800		10,800		10,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800	300		2,400
4,800*				1,200

Third’s max vs. first

If Tara thinks Andy is skittish, she could cap her wager at 1,500.

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
1,800		1,500		4,200
9,000		9,000		9,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800	300	1,500	2,400
4,800*				1,200	1,200

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800	300	1,500	2,400
4,800*				1,200	1,200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Mags and Tara: 2,700
Mags and Andy: 6,000
Tara and Andy: 3,300

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	600	3,900	5,100	7,800
	1,800	300	1,500	2,400	2,700
4,800*

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Andy		Tara		Mags
7,200		10,500		13,200
7,200		7,000		7,801
14,400		17,500		5,399

min	max	min	max	min	max
	599	3,901	5,099	7,801
		301	1,499	2,401	2,699
7,200*

Tara wins despite not following the easiest wagering advice: just wager $4,000.

I’m actually tempted to give Andy a pink grade as well, but I’m in a good mood because my next six weeks are a little more free than they have been the last forty-six.

It’s been a fun season! Thanks for sticking it out with me – and remember, if you want to help me replenish my liquor cabinet, there’s a campaign for that.

The Final Jeopardy! clue