Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, September 13, 2016

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Game two of Season 33; let’s hope our players wager better than in the first.

Similar scores to last night, but a little spicier.

Annie Busiek (1x)	André Hereford	Elizabeth Troyer
10,200	7,000	8,700

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

19th CENTURY MILITARY MEN

Now, on to the analysis.

First-order calculations

Elizabeth is just barely closer to Annie (in first) than André (in third), so she has some wiggle room with her wager.

Annie		André		Elizabeth
10,200		7,000		8,700
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,200			3,600	5,300	5,700

Second-order calculations

Some minor mind-game possibilities between our two trailers.

Annie		André		Elizabeth
10,200		7,000		8,700
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,200			3,600	5,300	5,700
			200	1,900

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Annie and Elizabeth: 1,500
Annie and André: 3,200
Elizabeth and André: 1,700

Annie		André		Elizabeth
10,200		7,000		8,700
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,200		3,400	3,600	5,300	5,700
			200	1,900
	1,500				1,700

André also has a tight range of optimal plays.

What actually happened

Annie		André		Elizabeth
10,200		7,000		8,700
8,701		7,000		5,301
1,499		0		3,399
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,201		3,401	3,599	5,301	5,699
			199	1,901
	1,499				1,699

And here’s the rub of knowing how to wager: André coulda been the champ.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

19th CENTURY MILITARY MEN

IN 1895 HE WROTE TO HIS FAMILY THAT WITH “SUPERHUMAN STRENGTH” HE WOULD “DISCOVER THE TRUTH…ON THE TRAGIC AFFAIR”

[spoiler]Who was Alfred Dreyfus?[/spoiler]

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