Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Wednesday, June 8, 2016

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I’ve had three unedited videos sitting in the can. Up first, Wednesday’s match.

Hunter has a slight lead, but Stew could play spoiler to win his third game.

Stew Latwin (2x)	Hunter Appler	Torrey Livenick
7,400	14,200	12,400

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

STATE CAPITALS

Now, on to the analysis.

First-order calculations

I’d like to see Stew wager everything here – Torrey and Hunter can mess around a little too much.

Stew		Hunter		Torrey
7,400		14,200		12,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
6,200*		10,600		2,400	8,800
2,600	3,800
		600

Second-order calculations

Not too much in the way of mind games, but Torrey’s small wager should further cement Stew’s all-in resolve.

Stew		Hunter		Torrey
7,400		14,200		12,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
6,200*		10,600		2,400	8,800
2,600	3,800				1,200
		600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Hunter and Torrey: 1,800
Hunter and Stew: 6,800
Torrey and Stew: 5,000

Stew		Hunter		Torrey
7,400		14,200		12,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
6,200*		10,600		3,600	5,000
2,600	3,800
		600	1,800		1,200

What actually happened

Stew		Hunter		Torrey
7,400		14,200		12,400
7,398		10,601		12,000
14,798		24,801		400
min	max	min	max	min	max
6,201*		10,601		3,601	4,999
2,601	3,799
		601	1,799		1,199

Good wagers from the gentlemen… turns out the for-broke wager was suboptimal from Stew, but you never know what you’re going to get. Not sure what Torrey’s wager was meant to accomplish.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

STATE CAPITALS

THIS MIDWESTERN CAPITAL WAS NAMED FOR A MAN WHO WAS BORN IN WHAT IS NOW TURKEY OVER 2,000 YEARS AGO

[spoiler]What is Saint Paul, Minnesota?[/spoiler]

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