Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Tuesday, May 31, 2016

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For Tuesday’s game, a special double feature!

Here are our scores heading into Final:

Erin Delaney (2x)	Tim Mercure	Laurie Corrin
8,400	13,500	10,200

But first, what did you think about Tim’s Penultimate Wager? Here were the scores:

PENULTIMATE WAGER
Erin	Tim	Laurie
8,400	14,000	10,200
DRAMA, $2000

I liked it; more analysis in the video.

On to tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category:

WORLD FAUNA

First-order calculations

One of the reasons I liked Tim’s wager is it kept Laurie in Stratton’s Dilemma. She’s closer to Erin’s third-place total, so she’s basically forced to go all-in.

Erin		Tim		Laurie
8,400		13,500		10,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	1,800	6,900		6,600*
					3,600
		3,300

Second-order calculations

I guess Erin could go all-in as well,

Erin		Tim		Laurie
8,400		13,500		10,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
	1,800	6,900		6,600*
				3,000	3,600
4,800*		3,300

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Tim and Laurie: 3,300
Tim and Erin: 5,100
Laurie and Erin: 1,800

Erin		Tim		Laurie
8,400		13,500		10,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,800	1,800	6,900		6,600*
		3,300	3,300	3,000	3,600
4,800*					1,800

We’ve got a lot of tie possibilities here. I wouldn’t be all too concerned with them, but I’ll stick this video here just in case you want to review the considerations.

What actually happened

Erin		Tim		Laurie
8,400		13,500		10,200
8,400		6,901		6,601
0		20,401		3,599
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,800	1,801	6,901		10,200
		3,300	3,301	3,301	3,599
8,400				1,800	1,801

Good pull by Tim on a strange clue… and another good wager. What more can you expect from a (gainfully employed) mathematician?

The Final Jeopardy! clue

WORLD FAUNA

PLATYPUSES ARE TO THIS PACIFIC ISLAND WHAT ALLIGATORS ARE TO FLORIDA

[spoiler]What is Tasmania?[/spoiler]

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