Final Jeopardy! wagering analysis:
Monday, April 18, 2016
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This looks like it could be a fun way to kick off our Jeopardy! week. Was it?
Another good game tonight, and we’ve got some special scores heading into Final:
|
Andrew Pau (1x) |
Sarah Edwards |
David Greenberg |
| 22,600 | 16,400 | 10,200 |
Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:
| AMERICAN ICONS |
First-order calculations
David has to get it right, so all in for him.
This is an evenly-spaced scores situation, so Sarah, in the middle, has a predicament on her hands: should she add the extra dollar (to lock out David if they both get it right) or withhold it (to stay above Andrew’s minimum if they both miss)?
| Andrew |
Sarah |
David | |||
| 22,600 | 16,400 | 10,200 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,200 | 4,000 | 4,001 | 2,200* | ||
| 2,200 | |||||
Second-order calculations
Andrew has a similar decision. And, given Sarah might wager 4,001, he should cap his maximum alternative wager at 2,198.
| Andrew |
Sarah |
David | |||
| 22,600 | 16,400 | 10,200 | |||
| FIRST-ORDER | SECOND-ORDER | COVER ZERO | |||
| min | max | min | max | min | max |
| 10,200 | 10,201 | 4,000 | 4,001 | 2,200* | |
| 16,400 ! | |||||
| 2,198 | |||||
What actually happened
| Andrew | Sarah | David | |||
| 22,600 | 16,400 | 10,200 | |||
| 10,201 | 6,201 | 7,000 | |||
| 32,801 | 22,601 | 17,200 | |||
| min | max | min | max | ||
| 10,200 | 10,201 | 4,000 | 4,001 | 10,200 ! | |
| 2,198 | 16,400 ! | ||||
Bad wagers from our two challengers. Sarah needed to wager at least 8,400 to cover that potential 2,198 / 2,199 wager from Andrew. But really, when ties are a possibility, you’re forced into a very specific range.
Andrew has now won 2 games and $65,202.
The Final Jeopardy! clue
| AMERICAN ICONS |
| THIS WWII ICON WAS CREATED IN A 1943 SONG THAT SAYS, “THAT LITTLE FRAIL CAN DO MORE THAN A MALE CAN DO” |
[spoiler]Who is Rosie the Riveter?[/spoiler]
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