Friday, January 1, 2016

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My 2016 is off to a great start – let’s see if we can get some good wagers out of tonight’s players!

Ashley Wilson looks poised to become our first repeat champion since Claudia Corriere had to take a break after winning her second game two weeks ago.

Ashley Wilson	Deborah Henry	Carl Holmgren
19,200	15,400	9,800

I watched Amadeus this afternoon, so I’m prepared to use Mozart’s cackle if necessary on tonight’s video.

All three players are alive with this category:

THE 18th CENTURY

We’ve got a tricky one, particularly for our third-place player.

First-order calculations

Ashley can cover Deborah with a big wager, while Deborah has a safe range to both cover Carl and stay above Ashley.

Ashley		Deborah		Carl
19,200		15,400		9,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		4,200	7,800	1,400	2,200
				9,000*
400

Second-order calculations

All of the possible mind games should lead Carl to go for broke here, even if the ‘rational’ play is to stay small.

Ashley		Deborah		Carl
19,200		15,400		9,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		4,200	7,800	9,000*
4,000	7,200		3,400	1,400	2,200
400			200

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Ashley and Deborah: 3,800
Ashley and Carl: 9,400
Deborah and Carl: 5,600

Ashley		Deborah		Carl
19,200		15,400		9,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		7,600	7,800	9,400*
4,000	7,200	4,200		1,400	2,200
400	3,800		3,400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Ashley		Deborah		Carl
19,200		15,400		9,800
11,601		4,201		9,401
30,801		19,601		399
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,601		7,601	7,799	9,800
4,001	7,199	4,201		1,401	2,199
401	3,799		199

Turns out everyone wagered rationally, so Carl’s big play was unnecessary. The thing is: I focus on process, not outcomes! It was a good wager.

Ashley has now won 2 games and $52,402.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

THE 18th CENTURY

IN 1765 BRITAIN’S PM SAID, AFTER ALL WE’VE DONE FOR THE COLONIES, IF THEY WHINE ABOUT THIS LAW, THEY’LL WHINE ABOUT ANYTHING

[spoiler]What is the Stamp Act?[/spoiler]

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