Tuesday, December 29, 2015

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So glad you could join me on my final night in Vermont. Come, sit down, and grab a drink. Maybe several.

We have a lot to discuss. Let’s go through the wagers first…

Patricia Franco	Ashley Wilson	Camille Hooper
2,600	9,400	10,800

…with this category:

FAMOUS LAST NAMES

If you’re curious, tonight’s episode was filmed in my childhood bedroom. I’m wearing some flannel shirt I pulled out of my closet. (I kept a lot of the weirder stuff for another time.)

First-order calculations

Ashley can easily keep Patricia locked out.

Patricia has to get it right and wager something, so she might as well go for broke.

Patricia		Ashley		Camille
2,600		9,400		10,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
200*			4,200	8,000
			6,600
					5,600

Second-order calculations

This is a Shore’s Conjecture situation, so mind games are certainly a possibility.

Patricia		Ashley		Camille
2,600		9,400		10,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
200*			4,200	8,000
			1,400
			6,600	2,800	5,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Camille and Ashley: 1,400
Camille and Patricia: 8,200
Ashley and Patricia: 6,800

Patricia		Ashley		Camille
2,600		9,400		10,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
200*		2,800	4,200	8,000	8,200
		1,400	1,400		1,400
			6,600	2,800	2,800

These zero wagers might complicate things a bit. If our players go Shoretegic, they’re in a wager-to-tie situation.

Maybe this scenario will prod me into creating the second part of my Shore’s Conjecture tutorial to explain why.

What actually happened

Patricia		Ashley		Camille
2,600		9,400		10,800
0		9,400		8,001
2,600		0		2,799
		min	max	min	max
2,600		2,801	4,199	8,001	8,199
		1,400 !			1,399
			6,599	2,800 !

Let’s start with the wagers. Two basic rules of thumb for third place, as I explain on my video, are as follows (assuming rational wagering from first):

• If you have less than the difference between first and second, you are mathematically eliminated.
• If you have less than twice the difference between first and second, you are still alive, but need to get it right and wager some amount to have a shot. Go for everything.

Patricia needed to wager at least 200. She did not. She lost. She also gets the gray wager, which I hate giving out, particularly after she wagered so well yesterday.

Now, for the clue: how does that error go unnoticed by so many smart people? As a result, one player gets bumped from this week’s taping (and it would have been two, had Patricia wagered enough).

It was so embarrassing the Jeopardy! Clue of the Day lists one of the Daily Doubles, rather than the Final clue.

I gave my father some whiskey stones for Christmas, and now I need to go ask if I can borrow them.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

FAMOUS LAST NAMES

THE FIRST WOMAN SPACE SHUTTLE PILOT SHARES THIS SURNAME WITH A MAN ON THE 1st MANNED LUNAR LANDING 26 YEARS EARLIER

[spoiler]What is Collins (Michael and Eileen)? The problem with the clue is Michael Collins was not on the lunar landing; he stayed aboard the command module while Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin went to the surface.

“Lunar landing mission” would have been correct – thanks to Ron Saputo for pointing out that “lunar mission” alone (as I had previously suggested) would also technically refer to Apollo 8, 9, and 10, because these were lunar flybys.

Phew. Enough![/spoiler]

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