Wednesday, October 7, 2015

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It’s been a while since I’ve had some serious beef with a wager.

That will change tonight.

Here are the actual scores heading into Final:

Matt Jackson	Alison Burke	Susan Thurman
17,395	9,400	2,400

Even though Alison is still in contention, it’s clear she needs a solo get to have a shot here.

For the sake of avoiding rust, let’s pretend Alison had made it a True Daily Double late in Double Jeopardy!.

The scores in that case:

Matt	Alison	Susan
17,395	14,800	2,400

Much more exciting!

Now, let’s see how these players feel about this category:

MOVIE CHARACTERS

First-order calculations

In our alternate universe, Matt would have to go big to cover a double-up by Alison. Susan is still – but barely – eliminated.

Matt		Alison		Susan
17,395		14,800		2,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
12,205	12,595		9,610

Second-order calculations

Matt and Alison could play some mind games, but you know that Matt is putting this game on his own shoulders.

Matt		Alison		Susan
17,395		14,800		2,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
12,205	12,595		4,420
7,015			9,610

Zero wagers

Matt and Alison are separated by 2,595.

Matt		Alison		Susan
17,395		14,800		2,400
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
12,205	12,595	2,595	4,420
7,015		5,190	9,610

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

In real life, this whole exercise was moot.

Matt		Alison		Susan
17,395		9,400		2,400
1,406		7,996		2,300
18,801		17,396		100
min	max			min	max
1,406	7,994	9,400			2,809

Look, I’m all about process over outcome. If you can’t be in the lead heading into Final, at least be in a spot where you can still win if the leader gets it wrong. Alison’s timid wager on that Daily Double put her in a terrible position: hoping for a Final Jeopardy! that only she would know.

Matt has had some weak areas, but channeling T.S. Eliot here, I’d rather go out with a bang than a whimper.

Congrats to Matt, who now has 9 wins and $249,411.

The Final Jeopardy! clue

MOVIE CHARACTERS

CHARLTON HESTON’S WARDROBE IN 1954’S “SECRET OF THE INCAS” INSPIRED THE CLOTHES WORN BY THIS ADVENTUROUS CHARACTER 27 YEARS LATER

[spoiler]Who is Indiana Jones?[/spoiler]

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