July 20, 2015

Monday, July 20, 2015

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Our dancer-in-chief, Jennifer Morrow, is going for her third win tonight. What will the new week bring?

A situation verrrrrrrrrrry similar to what we saw on Friday.

Jennifer

Morrow

Scott

Lord

Mary

Ciconte

14,500

17,600

8,000

Our players will be dealing with:

POETRY

For those of you interested in Jennifer’s charity, Operation Backpack, here’s the link.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Jennifer doubles her score, she’ll have 29,000.

To cover this all-in wager, Scott will need to wager 11,400.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
14,500		11,400
29,000		29,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
		11,400

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Scott with 6,200.

To stay above his total, Jennifer can wager up to 8,300.

Mary can wager up to 1,800.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
8,300		11,400		1,800
6,200		6,200		6,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
	8,300	11,400			1,800

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Mary at 16,000.

To cover this, Jennifer should wager at least 1,500.

Scott could wager at most 1,600.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
1,500		1,600		8,000
16,000		16,000		16,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	8,300	11,400			1,800

			1,600

Mary would need to wager at least 5,000. Might as well go all-in then.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
1,500				5,000
13,000				13,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	8,300	11,400		5,000*
					1,800
			1,600

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	8,300	11,400		5,000*
					1,800
			1,600

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Jennifer makes the rational maximum wager of 8,300, Scott will need to wager 5,200 to cover her.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
8,300		5,200
22,800		22,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	8,300	11,400		5,000*
		5,200			1,800
			1,600

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 12,400.

To stay above him, Jennifer can wager up to 2,100.

Mary might consider risking at least 4,400. Again, all in.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
2,100		5,200		4,400
12,400		12,400		12,400

min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	2,100	11,400		5,000*
	8,300	5,200			1,800
			1,600

Third’s max vs. first

For Mary’s 1,800 wager, Jennifer could go up to 4,700, and Scott up to 7,800.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
4,700		7,800		1,800
9,800		9,800		9,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	2,100	11,400		5,000*
	4,700	5,200	7,800		1,800
	8,300		1,600

But Scott would need to wager 1,600 to cover that 4,700 wager out of Jennifer… and so the plot thickens.

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	2,100	11,400		5,000*
4,700	4,700	5,200	7,800		1,800
	8,300	1,600	1,600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Scott and Jennifer: 3,100
Scott and Mary: 9,600
Jennifer and Mary: 6,500

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
1,500	2,100	11,400		6,500*
4,700	4,700	5,200	6,200		1,800
6,200	6,500	1,600	1,600

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Jennifer		Scott		Mary
14,500		17,600		8,000
2,000		11,401		8,000
12,500		29,001		0

min	max	min	max	min	max
6,201	6,499	11,401		8,000
4,700 !		5,201	6,199		1,799
1,501	2,099	1,600 !

Scott pulls out the lone correct response… and our streak without a three-game winner will enter its 17th game tomorrow.

The Final Jeopardy! clue