June 22, 2015

Monday, June 22, 2015

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The last three players to sweep an entire week have lost on a Monday. Will five-timer Brennan Bushee suffer the same fate?

For the first time, he’s trailing heading into Final – but he has a perfect FJ! record to fall back on.

Brennan

Bushee

Kay

Yung

Sacha

Samotin

11,800

16,200

9,800

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION

This one could get hairy. (Whoops – how’d that glass of scotch get into my hand?)

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Brennan doubles his score, he’ll have 23,600.

To cover this all-in wager, Kay will need to wager 7,400.

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
11,800		7,400
23,600		23,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
		7,400

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Kay with 8,800.

To stay above her total, Brennan can wager up to 3,000.

Sacha can wager up to 1,000.

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
3,000		7,400		1,000
8,800		8,800		8,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
	3,000	7,400			1,000

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Sacha at 19,600.

To cover this, Brennan should wager at least 7,800. In this case, though, he will lose on an incorrect response, so he might as well wager everything.

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
7,800		3,400		9,800
19,600		19,600		19,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800*		7,400			1,000
	3,000
		3,400

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800*		7,400			1,000
	3,000
		3,400

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Brennan makes the rational maximum wager of 3,000, Kay will need to wager 1,400 to stay above him.

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
3,000		1,400
14,800		14,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800*		7,400			1,000
	3,000	3,400
			1,400

In that case, Brennan would have to wager 5,800 and respond correctly. Another vote for the all-in wager.

Sacha might consider risking at least 7,800 – in other words, everything.

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
5,800		1,400		7,800
17,600		17,600		17,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800*		7,400			1,000
	3,000	3,400		7,800*
			1,400

Third’s max vs. first

Brennan should cap his lowball wager at 1,000 in case Sacha has a similar idea.

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
1,000		5,400		1,000
10,800		10,800		10,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800*		7,400			1,000
	1,000	3,400		7,800*
	3,000		1,400

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
7,800*		7,400			1,000
	1,000	3,400		7,800*
	3,000		1,400

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Kay and Brennan: 4,400
Kay and Sacha: 6,400
Brennan and Sacha: 2,000

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800*		7,400	8,800		1,000
	1,000	3,400	4,400	7,800
			1,400

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Brennan		Kay		Sacha
11,800		16,200		9,800
5,000		0		9,800
16,800		16,200		19,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,800		7,401	8,799		999
	999	3,401	4,399	9,800
			1,399

Maybe Brennan is a believer in paying it forward – after all, he did get one hell of a gift on Friday’s episode.

I do want to point out my Corollary to Rule #2 of my original wagering tutorial: If you must get it right to be in contention, wager everything.

Don’t even think about it!

In any event, Brennan had a great run, winning $126,404 in his five victories. He’ll be back for the TOC – his six-Final streak still alive.

The Final Jeopardy! clue