June 2, 2015

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

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On June 2, 2004, Ken Jennings won for the first time.

On June 2, 2014, Julia Collins lost for the first time.

Will 5-time champ Dan Feitel do something notable today?

Well, he’s got the lead – but things are a bit more knotty than previous games.

Dan

Feitel

Jacob

Johnson

Tara

Whittle

16,600

14,100

8,600

Tonight’s Final Jeopardy! category is:

INFAMOUS

Hmmm. Bonnie & Clyde, perhaps?

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Jacob doubles his score, he’ll have 28,200.

To cover this all-in wager, Dan will need to wager 11,600.

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
11,600		14,100
28,200		28,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Dan with 5,000.

To stay above his total, Jacob can wager up to 9,100.

Tara can wager up to 3,600.

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
11,600		9,100		3,600
5,000		5,000		5,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600			9,100		3,600

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Tara at 17,200.

To cover this, Jacob should wager at least 3,100.

(Dan would need to wager at least 600, but this is somewhat questionable.)

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
600		3,100		8,600
17,200		17,200		17,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	9,100		3,600

600

Tara would need to wager at least 2,400 to get above Jacob if he’s wrong.

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
		3,100		2,400
		11,000		11,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	9,100	2,400	3,600

600

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	9,100	2,400	3,600

600

Second-order calculations

Second’s max vs. first

If Jacob makes the rational maximum wager of 9,100, Dan will need to wager 6,600 to cover him.

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
6,600		9,100
23,200		23,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	9,100	2,400	3,600
6,600
600

If he’s wrong with that wager, he’ll be left with 10,000.

To stay above him, Jacob can wager up to 4,100.

Tara might consider risking at least 1,400.

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
6,600		4,100		1,400
10,000		10,000		10,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	4,100	2,400	3,600
6,600			9,100
600

Third’s max vs. first

I don’t see any reason for Jacob or Dan to make this play – the potential for Tara to go big is too strong.

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
4,400		1,900		3,600
12,200		12,200		12,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	4,100	2,400	3,600
6,600			9,100
600

Now, after two orders of analysis:

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600		3,100	4,100	2,400	3,600
6,600			9,100
600

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Dan and Jacob: 2,500
Dan and Tara: 8,000
Jacob and Tara: 5,500

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
11,600	16,000	3,100	4,100	2,400	3,600
6,600	8,000	5,000	5,500
600			9,100

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Dan		Jacob		Tara
16,600		14,100		8,600
16,599		3,101		6,300
1		17,201		2,300

min	max	min	max	min	max
11,601	15,999	3,101	4,099	2,401	3,599
6,601	7,999	5,001	5,499

Congrats to Dan on a stellar run – while I clearly didn’t always agree with the “everything but a dollar” strategy, it worked well for him. He leaves with $127,998 and a berth in the next Tournament of Champions.

And congrats to Jacob for unseating a very strong champ – we’ll see how he does from the leftmost podium on Wednesday.

And to Tara, for hanging in against two buzzer demons.

I’ll have more on Dan’s strategy soon in a new By the Numbers installment. But check out this interview he did about his run:

The Final Jeopardy! clue