May 7, 2015

Thursday, May 7, 2015

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Poor Elliot Yates has taken a beating in the TOC standings over the past two months. Will he drop another notch tonight?

He might be, but it’s not guaranteed. For the first time in four games, Scott Ylinen doesn’t have the victory wrapped up before Final.

Scott

Ylinen

Emily

Bialowas

Andrew

Haringer

13,600

5,200

11,200

We’ll duke it out over this category:

MASCOTS

For those of you who don’t follow me on social media (boo!), you might have missed out on this beautiful article by Rebecca Golden, who finished in second yesterday:

I Lost on ‘Jeopardy!’ — But I Finally Beat My Fear Of Being Called Fat

Seriously, it’s one of the best things I’ve ever read.

Back to the game: Emily and Andrew are both going to be caught in predicaments here.

First-order calculations

Second doubles up

If Andrew doubles his score, he’ll have 22,400.

To cover this all-in wager, Scott will need to wager 8,800.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
8,800				11,200
22,400				22,400

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800

An incorrect response with that wager will leave Scott with 4,800.

To stay above his total, Andrew can wager up to 6,400.

Emily can wager up to 400.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
8,800		400		6,400
4,800		4,800		4,800

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800			400		6,400

Third doubles up

A successful doubling will put Emily at 10,400.

To stay above her, Andrew can wager at most 800.

Scott could wager at most 3,200.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
3,200		5,200		800
10,400		10,400		10,400

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800			400		6,400
					800
	3,200

Here’s where things stand after the first order:

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800			400		6,400
					800
	3,200

Second-order calculations

Quasi-Shoretegic wagers

If Andrew chooses to stay above a double-up by Emily, he will have at most 12,000 with a correct response.

Scott can stay above that total by wagering no more than 1,600.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
1,600				800
12,000				12,000

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800			400		6,400
	1,600				800
	3,200

To get above his “Shoretegic” total, Andrew must wager 4,000.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
1,600				4,000
12,000				15,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800			400	4,000	6,400
	1,600				800
	3,200

If Andrew misses with that 4,000 wager, Emily can catch him… but she’ll have to put it all on the line.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
		2,000		4,000
		7,200		7,200

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800		2,000*		4,000	5,600
	1,600		400		800
	3,200

Third’s max vs. first

Andrew should restrict his max wager. Scott should ignore this – either lock Andrew out, or stay above Emily.

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
8,000		400		5,600
5,600		5,600		5,600

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800		2,000*		4,000	5,600
	1,600		400		800
	3,200				6,400

I suppose on the upside, Scott could go for 3,200 to cover that 5,600 wager out of Andrew.

Anyway, after two orders of analysis:

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800		2,000*		4,000	5,600
	1,600		400		800
3,200	3,200				6,400

Zero wagers

Score differences:
Scott and Andrew: 2,400
Scott and Emily: 8,400
Andrew and Emily: 6,000

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
FIRST-ORDER		SECOND-ORDER		COVER ZERO
min	max	min	max	min	max
8,800		2,000*		4,800	5,600
	1,600		400		800
3,200	3,200

Then we add a dollar to the minimum wagers, and subtract a dollar from the maximum wagers.

What actually happened

Scott		Emily		Andrew
13,600		5,200		11,200
8,801		4,900		2,401
4,799		300		8,799

min	max	min	max	min	max
8,801		5,200		4,801	5,599
	1,599		399		799
3,200 (+1?)

I don’t like Andrew’s wager because it (1) puts him at risk against Emily and (2) fails to cover a Colbyesque wager out of Scott.

But either way, he’s the champ – and Elliot can breathe easily.

The Final Jeopardy! clue