Daily analysis, Thursday, May 8 – Battle of the Decades, QF #4

The nice thing about the quarterfinals is you don’t need to stop Ken Jennings, or even hope to contain him; you just need enough to guarantee a wild-card spot. Will Tom and Rachael do it – or will they stop Mr. 74 cold?

Ken just blasted through this one, although it would have been interesting to see him get that Papal Daily Double later in the round.

Tom Cubbage: 9,800
Rachael Schwartz: 3,800
Ken Jennings: 30,200

The Final Jeopardy! category: BRITISH THINKERS

Another fairly straightforward scenario, I think.

Tom should wager everything, probably; if he wants to stay small, he should cap his wager at 2,200 so as not to fall below Rachael.

Rachael should wager everything.

I really dislike softball Finals when other wild-card contenders have to face blisteringly hard clues. But that’s how the game works.

Each day I’ll update the standings with my estimated chances of advancing for the wild-card candidates. These are based on past data compiled for my tutorial.

Tonight, Tom and Leszek clinched wild-card berths; Pam’s probability of advancing stayed about the same.

Quarterfinal winners:

Roger Craig
Russ Schumacher
Brad Rutter
Ken Jennings

Wild-card standings, with estimated probability of advancing in parentheses:

Tom Cubbage:  19,500 (clinched)
Leszek Pawlowicz:  15,000 (clinched)
Pam Mueller:  14,798 (86%)
Rachael Schwartz:  7,600 (21%)
Tom Nosek:  2,400 (eliminated)
Dan Pawson:  399 (eliminated)
Mark Lowenthal:  300 (eliminated)
Robin Carroll:  0 (eliminated)

The Final Jeopardy! clue for May 8, 2014 (BRITISH THINKERS):

HIS WORKS INCLUDE “THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE” IN 1919 & “THE END OF LAISSEZ-FAIRE” FROM 1926

Correct response: Who was John Maynard Keynes?