Daily analysis, Wednesday, April 23
Here’s hoping we make it through all of the clues today despite the best attempts of Lindblad Expeditions.
Well, we did – but we also had a huge swing on that last clue, with Brad dropping 2,000 and Julia picking it up. Here are our scores.
Julia Collins: 12,300
Zia Jones: 8,200
Brad Wright: 7,800
The Final Jeopardy! category: HOLIDAYS IN OTHER COUNTRIES
Recognize any mathematical tricks here?
Basic strategy
Julia should wager 4,100 to cover Zia – exactly the lead she holds now. Therefore, she must wager 4,100. That’s because Zia has exactly 2/3 of her score.
Zia should wager either everything (to try to tie Zia if they’re both right) or nothing (to win if Julia is wrong). However, to cover Brad, she’ll need to wager at least 7,400, so all-in is her better choice.
Brad needs to get it right to have a shot, so he should wager everything.
I’m a bit unhappy with these wagers; Julia risked falling below a passive wager by Zia, and Zia gave herself no chance to tie if Julia recognized the situation.
The Final Jeopardy! clue for April 23, 2014 (HOLIDAYS IN OTHER COUNTRIES):
WILLIAM TUBMAN’S NEARLY 3 DECADES OF LEADERSHIP IS CELEBRATED ON HIS BIRTHDAY, NOVEMBER 29, IN THIS COUNTRY
Correct response: What is Liberia?
I think Brad had a (relatively minor) incentive to hold back a small amount since Zia’s best wager is to bet it all, to increase his chances of taking second place (since in his case, unlike hers, that extra dollar is unlikely to make a difference on the upside). Still, I don’t make a big fuss about wagers where only the extra thousand is at stake unless there is no hope for a win based on the other players’ totals and their proper wagers.
True, but I limit my focus exclusively to maximizing chances to win. Even if he was going for second, he failed – he should have wagered at most 6,999.
And note that Zia offered the tie. Why do the good ones [almost] always lose!? 😉