Daily analysis, Friday, December 20

It’s my last video with this particular whiteboard for two whole weeks. What will I do?

Varun’s 3/3 on trailing heading into Final. Will he pull it out yet again today?

Varun Shekhar: 6,700
Greg Munda: 11,800
Jon Choi: 11,600

Greg and Jon are close, but Jon’s lead over Varun gives Varun little recourse but to go big.

Greg should wager 11,400 to lock out Jon. Tough having to go so large, but them’s the breaks!

Jon should put up at least 1,800 to cover Varun. If he’s feeling confident in the category, he can go for up to 4,900, forcing Varun to respond correctly and wager something to knock him out.

Varun needs to wager at least 3,100 to have a chance against Jon’s logical wager. He has no reason not to go for at least 5,100. And, I’d say, he should wager the most he can so that he doesn’t fall below Greg, but gives himself the maximum potential upside.

In this case, had Varun responded correctly, he’d be kicking himself for not having wagered so.

The thing is: sure, Jon might have wagered improperly. But do you really want to put your Jeopardy! career in the hands of another person’s bad wagering, when there’s no real downside if you miss placing yourself in better position?

The probability that Jon will wager between 4,901 and 11,200 is, I’d say, very close to nil.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for December 20, 2013:

20th CENTURY LITERARY TERMS
THE WRITER WHO NAMED THIS U.S. MOVEMENT SAID THE TERM REFERRED TO EXTREME BLESSEDNESS, NOT EXHAUSTION

Correct response: What is the Beat Movement?